Tuesday, November 8, 2016

DAPL -- Army Corps Of Engineers Re-Imagining Things -- RBN Energy -- November 8, 2016

Russian Northern Fleet: has arrived -- almost. The last ping  -- almost two hours ago -- showed the fleet was not far off the coast of Syria. The tug is not moving, suggesting this is probably where the aircraft carrier will stage. 

Track active rig count here: link

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3964193182189

RBN Energy: US Army Corps of Engineers studying options for the DAPL.

OPEC "warns" oil prices will stay low for longer -- Wall Street Journal. 
OPEC says its share of the global market will increase as US output from shale fields slows down. As if that matters, when Saudi Arabia is selling oil for $40/bbl and they need $100-oil but would be "happy" with $80-oil. From the linked article (which seems to be an old article -- it seems I've seen all this somewhere before), data points:
  • crude-oil prices will rebound much less than expected in the next four years 
Let's repeat that:
  • crude-oil prices will rebound much less than expected in the next four years
Note two items within that forecast:
  • much less than expected
  • in the next four years

Back to OPEC's long-term assessment:
  • OPEC assumes oil prices will rise by $5 a bbl in the medium term, reaching $60 by 2020
  • $60 is $20 less than the baseline figure of $80/bbl that it used in 2015 for the beginning of the next decade
And where we stand today, from IEA / MarketWatch:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday (today) raised its forecasts for U.S. crude production for 2016 and 2017.
In its monthly energy outlook report, the government agency forecast U.S. crude output of 8.84 million barrels a day this year, up 1.3% from the previous forecast. For 2017, it sees production rising to 8.73 million barrels a day, up 1.7% from last month's forecast.
The EIA also forecast an average price of $42.84 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude this year, up from a previous estimate of $42.78.
Brent crude is seen averaging $43.30 this year, down from the $43.43 forecast in October. December WTI crude (CLZ6) traded at $45.26 a barrel. December Brent crude (LCOF7) at $46.29 a barrel.


  1. If the tug is in the same location as the Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov it would appear that the most direct route to Aleppo is over the part of Turkey that dips into Syria. According to Voice of America an attack on Aleppo by the carrier is inanimate. http://www.voanews.com/a/russia-syria-aleppo-attack-kuznetsov/3586700.html

    With the limited range capability of the Mig-29K (combat radius, about 150nm) that location would add about 52nm round trip to Aleppo with no overflight of Turkey. A direct flight to Aleppo is about 139nm vs 165nm around Turkey. It will be interesting if Turkey gives overflight permission to Russia. Do they have a common interest with Russia and that would bring into question Iran’s and Hezbollah’s place? Do we have a new coalition; Russian, Iran, Turkey and Hezbollah?

    1. The "new Russian" naval station will be at Tartus, Syria, well south of where the tug (Northern Fleet) is now. There is currently a Russian general cargo ship at/near the port of Tartus (the Vizantin). The Vizantin's destination was Tartus.

      That's interesting that VOA suggests an attack from the a/c carrier is imminent. This would be the perfect time to do it; with Americans glued to their TV sets watching the election outcome, there would be little coverage of Syria.

      It would fit Putin's style to bomb Aleppo from an a/c carrier about the same time the results of the election are being announced. Wow.

      As far as coalitions? I've lost track of the players. I need a new scorecard.