Tuesday, November 8, 2016

DAPL -- Army Corps Of Engineers Re-Imagining Things -- RBN Energy -- November 8, 2016

Russian Northern Fleet: has arrived -- almost. The last ping  -- almost two hours ago -- showed the fleet was not far off the coast of Syria. The tug is not moving, suggesting this is probably where the aircraft carrier will stage. 

Track active rig count here: link

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3964193182189

RBN Energy: US Army Corps of Engineers studying options for the DAPL.

OPEC "warns" oil prices will stay low for longer -- Wall Street Journal. 
OPEC says its share of the global market will increase as US output from shale fields slows down. As if that matters, when Saudi Arabia is selling oil for $40/bbl and they need $100-oil but would be "happy" with $80-oil. From the linked article (which seems to be an old article -- it seems I've seen all this somewhere before), data points:
  • crude-oil prices will rebound much less than expected in the next four years 
Let's repeat that:
  • crude-oil prices will rebound much less than expected in the next four years
Note two items within that forecast:
  • much less than expected
  • in the next four years

Back to OPEC's long-term assessment:
  • OPEC assumes oil prices will rise by $5 a bbl in the medium term, reaching $60 by 2020
  • $60 is $20 less than the baseline figure of $80/bbl that it used in 2015 for the beginning of the next decade
And where we stand today, from IEA / MarketWatch:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday (today) raised its forecasts for U.S. crude production for 2016 and 2017.
In its monthly energy outlook report, the government agency forecast U.S. crude output of 8.84 million barrels a day this year, up 1.3% from the previous forecast. For 2017, it sees production rising to 8.73 million barrels a day, up 1.7% from last month's forecast.
The EIA also forecast an average price of $42.84 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude this year, up from a previous estimate of $42.78.
Brent crude is seen averaging $43.30 this year, down from the $43.43 forecast in October. December WTI crude (CLZ6) traded at $45.26 a barrel. December Brent crude (LCOF7) at $46.29 a barrel.

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