North Dakota Weather Improving -- December 1, 2016

First things first: the Norwegian beat the Russian in the first tie-breaker at the 2016 World Chess Championship. 

ND weather: improving.

Active rigs:

	12/1/2016	12/01/2015	12/01/2014	12/01/2013	12/01/2012
Active Rigs	39	65	187	191	182

RBN Energy: the US becomes a net natural gas exporter for the first time.

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Warning. Before proceeding, consider the source. Jim Cramer over at CNBC explains how OPEC may have just engineered the short-squeeze of a lifetime. One data point from the link, with only slight hyperbole:

The Saudis upped their production to about 11 million barrels a day, from 10 million, so they are simply going back to where they were last year

If the "11 million" is in the ballpark, it takes me back to an earlier post. Over the past few years, Saudi has more-than-tripled the number of active rigs -- according to reliable sources -- and yet their overall crude oil production has remained relatively flat -- according to reliable sources. Meanwhile, US shale maintained production to a great extent despite cutting the number of rigs by a huge percent. In North Dakota active rigs have gone from 200 to 40 and production is still higher than it was during the early boom when there were 200 rigs.

A bit of hyperbole: over at Rigzone, "Oil Soars Off OPEC Agreement To Cut Production." WTI went from around $45 (though it was trending down) went to about $49 after the announcement. We were near $49 even before the deal a few weeks ago. $45 to $49 is hardly "soaring" in my view.

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Indonesia Out Again

Out Again: apparently Indonesia was "removed" from OPEC. Yes, there it is. Took a few minutes to find. Over at Rigzone, "Net Oil Importer Indonesia Leaves OPEC, Again." It appears that Indonesia was asked to leave when it could not accept recommended oil production cuts. Here we go:

Indonesia has suspended its membership of OPEC, less than a year after rejoining the cartel, as the net oil importer said it could not agree to the group's production cuts.

The decision came as the cartel agreed its first oil output cut since 2008 in a bid to tackle overcapacity and prop up prices.

The suspension could be a setback for Indonesia, OPEC's only East Asian member, which had hoped to benefit from being closer to OPEC countries when it reactivated its membership at the start of the year.

OPEC had proposed Indonesia cut oil production by about 37,000 barrels per day (bpd), or about 5 percent of its output, which would dent the already slipping oil rent in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan, who attended the Vienna meeting, said the only reduction Indonesia could accept was a cut of 5,000 bpd, which had been approved in the country's 2017 budget.

Interesting. Had Saudi Arabia agreed to leave OPEC yesterday, OPEC could say it removed 11 million bopd from global supply.