Friday, September 4, 2026

August Jobs Report: 3x Expecation -- Previous Report Also Update -- Previous Report Went From "Negative" To "Positive"

Locator: 51653JOBS.

Open borders: it would be interesting to know what the unemployment rate in this country would have been had Biden not opened the borders. 

It's well known that there is a subset of workers (undocumented visitors) that are not counted and take jobs away from Americans. I'm not making a value judgement or whether the US could do so well without these undocumented visited -- I'm simply reporting a factoid that is seldom mentioned except among the MAGA folks. 

Most interesting: this was one of the very rare times that the U6 number (total unemployed) number was also reported. 

I've always felt that U6 was a much better gauge than the U3 number. I've posted that on the blog years ago when I actually tracked the jobs report each month. Now, I report it rarely. Mostly on otherwise slow news days. 

New jobs: 162K vs 53K expected. 3.05x.

July report (the previous report) was revised and showed an even better report: 21K (positive) vs a negative 23K.  

71K on average for the past three months. Some suggest the number is a) due to volatility; b) fake. 

Unemployment rate: remains at 4.1%.

Incredible report.

We will see it posted later. 

Even the "total unemployed" (U6) improved from 7.9% to 7.7%. 

Economy:

These numbers are incredible.

Steven Liesman, of course .... aguafiestas. Cherry-picking. Doesn't like the two-month report -- doesn't fit the narrative; now Steve goes back three months to show that "nothing has changed." 

Futures fall after the release of the jobs report -- more likely that the Fed will increase the "Fed rate" in September. If next CPI report is even a bit "negative" with regard to inflation (which it most likely will be), the Fed will be forced to raise rates 25 basis points. Aguafiestas.