Friday, September 4, 2026

August Jobs Report: 3x Expecation -- Previous Report Also Update -- Previous Report Went From "Negative" To "Positive"

Locator: 51653JOBS.

Open borders: it would be interesting to know what the unemployment rate in this country would have been had Biden not opened the borders. 

It's well known that there is a subset of workers (undocumented visitors) that are not counted and take jobs away from Americans. I'm not making a value judgement or whether the US could do so well without these undocumented visited -- I'm simply reporting a factoid that is seldom mentioned except among the MAGA folks. 

Most interesting: this was one of the very rare times that the U6 number (total unemployed) number was also reported. 

I've always felt that U6 was a much better gauge than the U3 number. I've posted that on the blog years ago when I actually tracked the jobs report each month. Now, I report it rarely. Mostly on otherwise slow news days. 

New jobs: 162K vs 53K expected. 3.05x.

July report (the previous report) was revised and showed an even better report: 21K (positive) vs a negative 23K.  

71K on average for the past three months. Some suggest the number is a) due to volatility; b) fake. 

Unemployment rate: remains at 4.1%.

Incredible report.

We will see it posted later. 

Even the "total unemployed" (U6) improved from 7.9% to 7.7%. 

Economy:

These numbers are incredible.

Steven Liesman, of course .... aguafiestas. Cherry-picking. Doesn't like the two-month report -- doesn't fit the narrative; now Steve goes back three months to show that "nothing has changed." 

Futures fall after the release of the jobs report -- more likely that the Fed will increase the "Fed rate" in September. If next CPI report is even a bit "negative" with regard to inflation (which it most likely will be), the Fed will be forced to raise rates 25 basis points. Aguafiestas.  

For the view from The NYT, link here: