Idle Rambling On The Bakken, My Second Favorite Subject -- October 3, 2019

I'm going through every well that was permitted / drilled / completed back in the 2008 time period, by permit, the 16XXX series. I do this periodically, from time to time, take a specific series of permits and go through them. For example, I am doing the 16XXX series this week; maybe next week I will do the 17XXX series. And so on.

I literally go through every well -- it will take several days. But it is really amazing. Sure, there are a lot of wells that have not done particularly well, but they are still in production. But in general, I find it amazing how many wells show a jump in production, again for any number of reasons.

As I go through the list -- remember, these are the 16XXX wells -- one thousand of them -- 99% of them Bakken --and "we" have just begun the 37XXX series wells (October, 2019) -- that's (37000 - 16000 = 21,000 Bakken wells). I was saying: as I go through the list, the 16XXX wells drilled back in 2008 or thereabouts, all I see are scores (or hundreds) of wells that need to be re-fracked. It is absolutely amazing.

The problem for the operators is not whether to drill or not, whether to re-frack or not, the problem is what to prioritize? The operators are simply limited by resources: money, people, time, etc. I'm convinced Harold Hamm thinks about this 24/7.

I don't think anyone has any idea how much work needs to be done in the Bakken, just with the wells that are already drilled. It is simply amazing.

Here's another one.

Jack Pennington,  #16778.

16778, 354, MRO, Jack Pennington 21-28H, Reunion Bay, t8/08; cum 567K 10/19; off line 10/19; remains off line 4/20;

Test date: back on August 14, 2008. An IP of 354 in Reunion Bay. Ridiculous. Piss-poor as they say. Today, one would expect the IP in a Reunion Bay well to be 2,000 to 3,000. Maybe more.

This well's initial production in 2008 was pretty unremarkable, maybe even lousy: see the first six months of production below. If this well cost $10 million to drill / complete at the time, and at $50/bbl, this well produced 25,000 bbls x $50 = $1.25 million in the first six months. Not very good. In fact, lousy. A lot of folks would have called it "uneconomic."

Ten million dollars to drill/complete and only a million dollars to show for it after six months. (These days, these same wells might pay for themselves in the first six months). First six months production for this wells back in late 2008. The best it ever did at that time, a lousy 6,000 bbls/month.

BAKKEN	1-2009	30	2833	3355	395	1242	0	1242
BAKKEN	12-2008	28	2653	2391	465	1163	0	1163
BAKKEN	11-2008	25	4837	5073	910	2118	0	2118
BAKKEN	10-2008	31	4734	4304	840	2073	0	2073
BAKKEN	9-2008	24	4197	4072	993	1838	0	1838
BAKKEN	8-2008	27	6092	5828	2573	2668	0	2668

By 2014, six years later, this well had declined to 1,400 bbls/month -- the dreaded Bakken decline rate:

BAKKEN	5-2014	31	1425	1421	240	1460	891	231
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	1376	1452	221	1349	858	164
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	1291	1254	218	1165	479	363

If a conventional well, it was likely ready to be abandoned, at worse; or, at best, sold as a stripper well. A stripper well: 10 - 15 bbls/day.

But then look what happened in August, 2014:

BAKKEN	4-2015	30	9611	9607	3118	14239	11549	1491
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	10611	10751	3393	17020	15273	429
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	10534	10609	3234	15049	11451	2306
BAKKEN	1-2015	30	12878	12809	4003	13696	7804	4340
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	14837	14860	4629	19487	17085	630
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	17353	17242	5842	21687	18470	1182
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	22082	22073	8613	19059	7862	8653
BAKKEN	9-2014	23	19564	19734	10275	17440	4240	10975
BAKKEN	8-2014	19	12994	12958	4390	11511	3464	6519

Just like that, magic! In those nine months: 130,464 bbls of oil produced. At $50/bbl, $6.5 million in less than a year. And that doesn't include natural gas, etc.

Then, by August, 2016, it was back down to 5,000 bbls/month -- very, very respectable, and no one was complaining, but then look what happened in May, 2017. Another jump. More magic:

BAKKEN	12-2017	31	9396	9366	5373	10480	9245	35
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	8946	8933	5247	10854	8022	1686
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	10946	10900	6901	13462	8808	3288
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	10911	10854	7523	11766	10409	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	11520	11549	8562	12537	11109	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	11105	11259	9888	12136	10753	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	10107	9974	10537	12546	9600	1676
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	10455	10416	14583	13038	8675	3049
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	28	4486	4532	1366	6149	5040	467

Another 83,000 bbls in eight months, between May, 2017, and the end of the year (2017).

The well is still producing a very, very respectable 4,000 bbls/month, and my hunch is that we will see another jump in production in the next couple of years.

And I can find example after example after example of these wells. Absolutely amazing. Something I don't think we see in conventional wells and something no one seems to be talking about even when it's staring them in the face here in the Bakken.

Remember: Hubbert's theory applies to individual wells as well as fields and basins. 

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I may see things that don't exist. I will make typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

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Another One

These are not hard wells to find. They simply keep popping up. 

I could have used MRO's Bill Connolly 21-25H well as an example also, but I think I've discussed it a couple of times already.

But it's another great example.

Completed back in early 2008; a pretty average well for that time period:

BAKKEN	7-2008	23	2724	2681	1477	1265	1265	0
BAKKEN	6-2008	30	3028	2898	699	1344	1344	0
BAKKEN	5-2008	31	3311	3457	725	1521	1521	0
BAKKEN	4-2008	30	3732	3639	844	1858	1858	0
BAKKEN	3-2008	31	4753	4656	1045	1977	1977	0
BAKKEN	2-2008	29	5746	5811	1239	2132	2132	0
BAKKEN	1-2008	26	8262	7922	2143	313	313	0

Then:

BAKKEN	7-2014	31	3262	3362	1173	2149	761	853
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	3671	3909	1441	2530	1333	624
BAKKEN	5-2014	30	3881	3921	1818	3035	1864	586
BAKKEN	4-2014	28	2679	2571	1435	2005	1090	460
BAKKEN	3-2014	26	2192	1855	1675	1382	697	294
BAKKEN	2-2014	2	6	0	0	16	0	3
BAKKEN	1-2014	4	30	0	0	4	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	32	0	1	203	0	17
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	154	462	49	270	1	89

Then:

BAKKEN	7-2019	31	18771	18878	22079	23061	17102	4143
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	22893	22808	31176	20766	14015	4676
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	24374	24525	46403	19440	10248	6967
BAKKEN	4-2019	26	29475	29535	90245	20752	5344	12964
BAKKEN	3-2019	5	4502	3755	20278	3154	557	2030
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	23	440	3	19	6	9
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	844	680	243	786	420	12