Thursday, March 25, 2021

Fossil Fuel Is Dead! Long Live Fossil Fuel -- March 25, 2021

Link here

Imagine this headline in the United States

Texas and Louisiana now have at least -- repeat, at least -- four major new refineries under construction. Most of these new refineries along the Gulf Coast are expected to produce plastic feedstocks, such as ethylene and propylene.

Instead, we get this headline: President Biden kills they Keystone XL which would have brought much needed Canadian heavy oil to US refineries along the Gulf Coast. 

In fact the actual headline is this: China has at least four major new refineries under construction, most of which are expected to produce plastic feedstocks, such as ethylene and propylene.

The article at the link is chock full of interesting data points.

The world leader in refining:

  • until recently, it had been the US:
  • due to Covid-19 and a concerted effort to shut down the US oil industry by some faux environmentalists, China succeeded in overtaking the USA as the world's biggest oil refiner in 2020;
  • China's lead is most likely only temporary with the USA back in first place by the end of the year (2021), assuming no more bad news from the Biden administration;
  • but long term, it's probably likely that America's lead will be short-lived as oil demand continues to rise across Asia.

Fossil fuel is dead! Long live fossil fuel!

That Suez ship: it may be in worse trouble than we are being told. From a reader who knows this stuff pretty well. First note earlier this morning:

Long story short ... ships are not designed to 'sit on the ground'.

If this fully-laden, 1,200 foot long ship is resting on bottom anywhere along its keel  (certainly a portion of its bow area is right now), the unbalanced structural stresses could be enormous.

If any cracks develop, the ship will take on water and no longer be simply a floating obstruction ... it will be a sunken one.

Removal could be several months up to a year depending upon many factors.
Then this, from later this afternoon:
Upon much closer inspection of pictures, not only is the bow 20 to 30 feet higher than the stern, there is a noticeable list to port side. (VERY bad implications there).

Evidence of hull leaking growing, not receding.

Ramifications too numerous to elaborate.

Next 48 hours could be pivotal.

And, so there we are. How fast can "they" get Huey helicopters there to start air-lifting containers off that container ship, if that's even possible.

6 comments:

  1. A Huey couldn't lift an empty 40' container which weighs 8,200 lbs. The newest Chinook (CH-47F) can lift 24,000 lbs. A CH-53K (newest model) can lift 36,000 lbs but both with limited fuel. A 40' container can be loaded to a max weight of 67,000 lbs.
    I would hope the Egyptian Army and set up a security zone around the ship, otherwise it could be opportune target for terrorist and Iran. Any actions by Iran against SA or UAE would only have limited support from the US and Nato Navies. This is a big security deal.

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    1. 1. Great note, thank you.
      2. Yes, I'm sure the "bad guys" have the same adage others do: "don't let a crisis go to waste."
      3. Finally: that just shows how far behind the times I am with regard to US Army lift capabilities.

      Thank you so much for a great note.

      And we thought 2020 was an interesting year.

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  2. I flew the UH-1 and CH-47 in the Army and Reserves and other museum relics, but retired as a 737 airline pilot. The Russian have some even larger helicopters but they are few and far between, along with being maintenance hogs.

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    Replies
    1. 1. We probably passed "in the night" at some point in our respective careers. I have been a passenger on at least one of those models. I forgot which.

      2. Pretty funny, though. I was about to suggest asking the Russians. I didn't know what they had but thought they would have something big. With maintenance issues.

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  3. On the ship stuck in Suez Canal, likely was fully loaded, heavy. Not much ballast and a lot of fuel was used getting it to its present location. Seeing reports of speed was about 13 knots. Mass of about 240,000 tons being shoved into the bank of the canal. A train car loaded is about 100-120 tons. Equivalent mass of a train would be a 2000 train car string. I would say its well stuck in the mud....

    IMHO no easy fix to this problem

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