Monday, September 23, 2019

Saudi Attack + 9 Days -- Gasoline Shipments From Europe To The Mideast Surging -- September 23, 2019

Saudi attack: tea leaves / from twitter past twenty-four hours or so --
  • UK PM Boris Johnson says Iran was responsible; UK could join US-led military effort
  • the repair work is going to last a lot longer than "official" pronouncements suggested
  • consensus over the weekend, now that tours of the facility have been made: eight (8) months
  • Saudi's "sweet oil" was major casualty
  • Saudi will now try to replace "sweet oil" with "sour oil" -- my hunch: customers will object
  • Saudi will have to offer discounts on "sour oil"
But look at this, link here:

From Reuters, the linked article:
Gasoline exports from Europe to the Middle East and Asia are set to surge this week after recent attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities crippled output at the kingdom’s refineries.
Over 400,000 tonnes of gasoline and gasoline blending components have been booked in the past week for loading between Sept. 21 and Sept 26 out of northwest Europe with Mideast Gulf delivery options, shipping data shows. The flow is the equivalent of around 500,000 barrels per day. [Why didn't they say that to begin with; who in the ... measures gasoline in "tonnes"? I guess you do when loading a sea-going tanker. LOL.]
It is unclear where the cargoes will end up, but traders said that Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company Aramco is seeking to buy large volumes of refined oil products.
Europe’s exports of gasoline and blending components to Saudi Arabia averaged 60,000 bpd in the first five months of the year, according to data analytics firm Vortexa. 
One can opine / prognosticate all one wants on twitter, but when the actual data starts filtering in, then we can get serious. And this is serious.  500,000 bpd vs 60,000 bpd. Rounding, that's 10x.

So much for that Saudi Aramco IPO.

From the graphic at the linked article, these are Saudi's refineries, and capacity or throughput:

Heavy oil:
  • Satorp, 400,000 bpd
  • Yasref, 380,000 bpd
  • Yanbu, 220,000 bpd
    • Sub-total: 1,000,000bpd
Light oil:
  • Samref, 380,000 bpd
  • PetroRabigh, 380,000 bpd
  • Ras Tanura, 300,000 bpd
  • Sasref, 280,000 bpd
  • Riyadh, 110,00 bpd
    • Subtotal: 1,450,000 bpd

Total: 2.5 million bpd
  The attack knocked out one million bpd capacity.

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