Last Pipeline Standing -- Final Nail In The Coffin For The Keystone XL? -- June 21, 2018

From Bloomberg via Rigzone:

TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL may be one pipeline too many for Canada, at least for now.

Construction of the export line would supply Western Canada with more pipeline capacity than needed through 2030, assuming it were operating in the next decade along with the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and Enbridge Inc.’s Line 3, according to research released by the Canadian Energy Research Institute on Tuesday.

The three lines would raise the country’s crude export capacity to about 5.5 million barrels a day from just under 4 million barrels a day last year.

Alberta’s growing crude oil production, mostly from the oil sands, won’t exceed the capacity of existing and three planned expanded oil pipelines for another twelve years.

Canadian heavy crude prices have traded at an average discount to West Texas Intermediate future of almost $22 a barrel this year, about 70 percent bigger than the average discount last year, after existing pipelines filled to capacity amid a surge of new production from Suncor Energy Inc.’s Fort Hills oil sands mine. The discount widened 50 cents to $24 a barrel on Wednesday.

The $8 billion Keystone XL, approved by U.S. President Donald Trump last year, would carry 830,000 barrels of crude from Alberta to Nebraska. While TransCanada hasn’t made a final investment decision on the pipeline, the company has said it has “approximately 500,000 barrels per day of firm, 20-year commitments." A total of 12 percent of the pipeline would be reserved for uncommitted volumes, according to the National Energy Board. The company will begin clearing brush in Montana this fall, according to a U.S. State Department letter addressed to the Assiniboine and Sioux Tribes obtained by Bloomberg News.

"Alberta's production wouldn't exceed the capacity of the existing and three planned pipelines for another twelve years."

Twelve years will go by very, very quickly, and there's no reason to believe any of the three "planned pipelines" will be completed any time soon, if ever.

Twelve years will go by very quickly. From wiki: After more than six years of review, President Barack Obama announced on November 6, 2015, his administration's rejection of the fourth phase.

So, some time before 2009, TransCanada proposed Keystone XL and one has to assume a couple of years went into planning before the project ended up on President Obama's desk, taking us back to at least 2006. Let me check the calendar. Yup, it's 2018 --  twelve years. Right now, according to most optimistic reports, TransCanada suggests they could start building in 2019 -- thirteen years from 2006. Hope springs eternal.

It's taking longer to put a pipeline in than to build a nuclear reactor.