Iran Crude Oil Exports -- July 8, 2018; Apple -- It's All About Seamless Connectivity And Its Ecosystem

Over the next few months there will be lots of stories about Iran, crude oil production, crude oil exports, and sanctions.

Most articles, based on anecdotal historical experience, will talk about Iranian production. To some extent that's important, but more important is Iranian crude oil exports.

First, production: this is a great example of how one can "lie" with statistics. In this case there is no lying, but the graphic is quite, well, should we say "graphic":

It certainly looks like Iranian production has dropped off significantly. But look at the x-axis. The range is 3.8 million bopd to 3.92 million bopd -- not much of a range. In round numbers, Iran is producing about 4 million bopd.

Now, exports.

Quick! How have Iranian exports been doing?

Answer: Iranian exports have been setting records. Who would have guessed. From the St Louis Fed:

So, in round numbers, Iran exports about 2.5 million bopd. Most of it goes to India, I believe.

So, Iranian crude oil production:

• 4 million bopd

Iranian crude oil exports:

• 2.5 million bopd

Sanctions:

• a cut in exports, anywhere from:
• 500,000 bopd
• to:
• 2 million bopd

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The Apple Page

If this is accurate, this is a big, big deal. An anonymous source -- the best kind in these situations -- LOL -- is reporting that Apple Music has now surpassed Spotify's subscriber count in the US. Wow. 

• The ticker symbol for Spotify Technology is SPOT; it was last trading for about $176, Friday, July 6, 2018.
• The ticker symbol for that other company is AAPL; it was trading for about $188, Friday, July 6, 2018.

From the linked article:

.... the report says both Apple Music and Spotify have more than 20 million subscribers in the U.S., with Apple now "a hair ahead" with "20 million plus" members.

In February, The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple was gaining U.S. subscribers at a higher rate than Spotify. Apple’s US-based subscriber growth rate was believed to be 5 percent in the U.S., compared to Spotify’s 2 percent.

Based on those figures, the report predicted Apple Music would surpass its biggest rival in the summer. [Can't wait for 4Q18 earnings call.]

Apple's growth was said to be due in part by the increasing numbers of devices in consumers' hands. Since the WSJ report, Apple has also released its HomePod speaker, which includes features specific to Apple Music. 

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Pancake Break After Swimming