Many, many story lines:
- this bodes very, very well for the stock market -- or this bodes very, very badly for the stock market;
- discount brokers vs Merrill Lynch, et al;
- CNBC talking head: "... if a $4.95 commission is a barrier to investing, they shouldn't be investing.." --- the talking head doesn't understand human nature
- commission-free trading is akin to Amazon's free delivery
- CNBC talking heads (except Jim Cramer): AAPL and TSLA splits don't mean a thing -- don't understand human nature
- if the 4 - 1 (AAPL) and the 5 - 1 (TSLA) splits don't mean anything, would these same talking heads say the same thing about reverse splits? (yes, I understand the reason for "reasons" for reverse splits; I'm not sure folk understand the reason for [regular] splits);
- Jim Cramer: says the AAPL and TSLA splits will be a "plus" for those stocks -- he understands human nature
- valuations seem to be harder and harder to discern;
- lightning strikes unpredictably, but no longer infrequently
- tectonic changes occurring everywhere
- US presidential election looming
- Covid-19: things appear to be getting better; things appear to be getting worse;
- huge amounts of government money will be transferred to little pharma and Big Pharma
- money rotating out of some sectors into others
- daytime television sucks; only alternative for some: CNBC
- question: to what extent do day traders affect computer-generated algorithms? who has the greatest leverage: computer algorithms written by humans (although AI and machine learning may be more involved than we think) or emotionally-driven day traders?
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Re-Visiting REI
Re-posting from August 15, 2020, link here.
White (can we still say that?) elephant in Seattle, Washington:
I think there is much more to this story than meets the eye.
Take out a yellow legal pad and make two columns, pros and cons for a corporation to have employees work from home. The "pros" column will be much longer than the "cons" column but don't be fooled: the list you have drawn up doesn't place a dollar value on any of the items; many of the "pros" / "cons" cannot be monetized.
I don't think it's as straightforward as the zerohedge article might be implying.
I track "how Covid-19 changes things in America" at this post.
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How Covid-19 Changes Things In America
From that site:
July 16, 2020: cocoon culture.
- forecast: permanent drop in US miles driven could be as high as 10%
- due to:
- working from home
- on-line shopping
- historically: 17 million autos sold annually
- going forward: likely to be 16 million autos annually
- "people will fight very seriously for a million vehicles, especially if sales drop"
My hunch: that may need to be re-examined.
- first, "could be as much as" -- lots of wiggle room
- second, "as high as 10%" -- if comes to fruition, 10% not that extreme in big scheme of things
- third, mass transit is dead; for those who cannot afford their own automobiles, Uber/Lyft exist and, if I recall, their mode of transportation is ... drum roll ... the automobile
- fourth, transportation by air --
- business: more and more, such travel will be reduced by Zoom meetings;
- pleasure: really? really? really? for trips less than day's (18 hours) drive -- automobiles favored over flying? certainly for the next eight months
- trucking industry: tea leaves suggest there could be a short-term boom as the pandemic fades
- long term? think Amazon, Target, Walmart, etc
- automobile miles: a whole new demographic -- all those stay-at-home folks (many of them seniors) who never went out for dinner, can now have it delivered -- from everywhere -- from fast food restaurants to high-end establishments
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