US Crude Oil Exports -- May 15, 2019

Updates

Later, 9:18 p.m. Central Time: see first comment. A reader disagreed with my suggestion that the long pole in the tent would be export terminals along the Gulf Coast. See this post with additional data suggesting why the reader is correct; I was wrong.

Original Post 

EIA tracks US crude oil and petroleum products exports here but the data is almost three months old. Here it is May 15, 2019, and the recent EIA data for US crude oil exports is February, 2019.

In very round numbers, the US has been exporting 8.1 million bopd since October 2018.

There are actually two EIA charts:

• US crude oil exports: 3 million bopd.
• US crude oil and petroleum products: 8 million bbls/day.

I'll have to wait for the twitter folks to sort this out, but it appears in round numbers:

• the US is building its crude oil inventories by one to seven million bbls each week
• the US is exporting 2 million bopd but that number is trending up quickly (although export terminals may put a cap on crude oil exports for awhile)
• 2 million bopd x 7 days = 14 million bbls per week, and yet the US inventory is building at a rate of 1 to 7 million bbls/week (this is why the world will have a supply problem if US export terminals come on line quickly enough).

Rigzone provided a nice update regarding US production, refining capacity, exports at this link on January 17, 2019. Some data points:

• US crude oil production: topping 11 million bopd; disagreement on the future rate of change
• US refining capacity: 18.6 million bopd
• US refiners: generally configured to process heavier crudes imported from longtime suppliers Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela (again, thank you, Mr Obama, for killing the Keystone XL; what a doofus)
• 65% of US crude oil production has a very high 40-degree API gravity or above
• explains why the US is still imported an average of 8 million bopd lat year (2018)
• [Chinese imports in flux]
• export capacity lagging in the US; might be able to reach 5 million bopd over the next five years

Ah, yes, right on time, the twitter folks come through with the synopsis of where we stand:

• the US crude oil market has problems (too much)
• US crude oil producers have a [too much/too fast] supply problem ... and yes, it is higher than what the EIA is reporting
• US oil refiners have a [good] supply problem as local discounts are starting to appear once again
• traders, blenders, and exporters have a [good] supply problem as all they need is for those Permian pipelines to start up in 2H19
• Cushing may have a problem if those pipelines don't start o time in 2H19
• the US consumer doesn't appear to have a problem with price (yet)
• the world will have a supply problem in 2H19 when US crude oil supply finally reconnects to the seaborne crude market (via pipelines, ports, and boats)

No, the world won't have a supply problem in 2H19 if Rigzone is correct. The long pole in the tent will be export terminals off the Gulf Coast. Rigzone says the capacity if about 2 million bopd now, and might get to 5 million bopd in five years.

But the numbers are interesting. Saudi Arabia is producing about 10 million bopd and exporting about half that.