Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Experts Back In 2011: "There Could Be A 10-Million-BOPD Shortage By 2015"; Northwest Passage Will Be Ice-Free By 2015 -- November 13, 2018


November 14, 2018: either no one caught it or no one bothered to report it but there's no way the US is going to be producing 50 million bopd by 2025 -- see WSJ headline below. This is the correct headline:

Original Post 

Link here.
DOE’s optimistic future supply forecasts are dangerously unrealistic, James S. Baldauf, president and cofounder of ASPO-USA, told reporters during an Oct. 26 press conference in front of DOE’s headquarters. “If these exuberant predictions are wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic. We need to be conservative in planning for the future,” he said. “We are not running out of oil. But we appear to be running out of oil that we can afford.”
The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated.
Note: that was back in 2011.

Link here.

Imagine that: " ... as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015."

10 million bbl/day shortage. What were they smoking? Whatever it was, it probably wasn't even legal.

Memo to self: remind me to look at this report in December, 2025.

Fast forward to November 13, 2018.

From The WSJ today: the IEA predicts that the US will produce half of global oil and natural gas output by 2025 -- that could happen under President Trump's second term. IEA says growth in American production will be primarily driven by fracking. 

That in bold/red is a "cut/paste" from the WSJ. Here's the screenshot.
Huge glaring error in the headline. Free subscription to the blog for one year for first reader to note the huge glaring error. And this in the WSJ. Embarrassing. It will be interesting to see if they correct it. I bet they don't.

Memo to self: notes to Art Berman and Jane Nielson.

From the linked article:
In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the U.S. accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by shale fracking, which should lead U.S. shale oil supply to more than double, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day by the mid-2020s.
“The shale revolution continues to shake up oil and gas supply, enabling the U.S. to pull away from the rest of the field as the world’s largest oil and gas producer,” said the Paris-based organization that advises governments and corporations on energy trends. “By 2025, nearly every fifth barrel of oil and every fourth cubic meter of gas in the world come from the United States.”
The article is archived

Key point in that WSJ article was not mentioned. Saudi Arabia will be a net importer oil oil by 2040.

Saudi's foreign exchange reserves as of September, 2018, most recent available:


  1. i saw the WSJ article at Marketwatch last night and commented on their obviously wrong headline; meanwhile, just this morning i see Fatih Birol of the IEA is looking to compete with your 2015 warning:

    US shale needs to add another 'Russia' to prevent global oil shortage, IEA warns --U.S. shale oil producers would need to add the equivalent of Russia's entire crude oil production within just seven years to head off a global shortage, according to a global energy watchdog.

    1. Wow, that's interesting about Fatih Birols' concern. I am taking a short break from blogging but will get back to this later. Thank you.

    2. By the way, in I recall correctly, in the early comments to the WSJ article, only one person noted the obvious mistake.

    3. i normally wouldn't comment on a mistaken headline in the mainstream media either, but back during the first months of the financial crisis - circa 2008 and 2009, i was involved in posting articles and discussion groups at Marketwatch - they used to run something like a social media site on the side - and had many arguments with them at the time....so if i catch them in a mistake now, i'll usually point it out...

    4. I can use all the help I can get. I can easily miss those mistakes....