Locator: 49071WTI.
Tag: trillion-dollar mistake.
Updates
September 11, 2025:
- Saudi Arabia's budget deficit surged before the oil price crash; link here;
- google: saudi aramco dividend at risk;
- reality:
- Saudi facing sub-$60 oil
- budget based on $90 oil
Original Post
See this oilprice story: oil to drop below $60 by year-end, 2026, link here.
The following was posted back in 2016. Link here.
Locator: 10010SAUDI.The original post was dated May 9, 2016. This page was originally linked at the sidebar at the right as "Saudi (Re)Surgence," following it's trillion-dollar mistake, the 2014 - 2016 debacle.
Saudi started to recover from the debacle by 2018 or so but then inexplicably tried to destroy US shale again, in early 2020, resulting in a plunge in oil prices worldwide. At one time, WTI actually went negative.
This post, as of today, May 25, 2020, will now take on a broader, longer range outlook.
Saudi's very continued existence depends short-term (between 2020 and 2022) on the price of oil, and longer term (after 2022) on whether the country can diversify away from an economy solely based on production and exporting of oil. The success of Prince MbS' Vision 2030 plan is absolutely critical. The Saudi Aramco IPO was part of that plan.
My price points for WTI:
- $30 - $39: US shale survives;
- $40 - $49: US shale shows life;
- $50 - $59: US shale thrives;
- $60 - $69: US shale does very well;
Both Russia and Saudi Arabia need to see Brent at $60, and even that is barely enough for Saudi Arabia.If I can have only one metric to follow Saudi's long term prospects, it would be Saudi's monthly foreign reserve assets.
The House of Saud is in deep, deep trouble.Data links:
- Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves; tracking;
- CEIC: Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves, tracking;
Government reserves:
- 2021: 280 billion riyals ($75 billion)
- 2020: 346 billion riyals ($92 billion)
- 2019: 500 billion riyals ($133 billion)
Budget:
- 2020: 1.02 trillion riyals ($272 billion)
Revenues:
- 2020: 833 billion riyals
- 2019: 917 billion riyals
Budget deficit:
- 2020: 187 billion riyals
PIF (sovereign wealth fund):
- 2019: around $300 billion
Foreign exchange reserves: link here.
Policy: Saudi Arabia does not openly publish the amount of assets it holds within its sovereign wealth fund, known as the Public Investment Fund (PIF). The Institute of International Finance estimated in a report in June that the kingdom has assets worth around $300 billion with roughly a quarter of its holdings overseas. The Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute puts the figure closer to $320 billion. December, 2019. Link here.
