Updates
September 14, 2025: along with the four models introduced September 9, 2025, Apple may introduce an iPhone 17e, the successor to the iPhone 16e; could launch around March, 2025, with same A19 chip as the iPhone 17.
The iPhone 16e is still available for $599 with 128GB standard. The 256GB model adds another $100 or starting at $699. The new iPhone 17 starts at $799 with 256 GB. The iPhone Air starts at $999. The Pro and Pro Max start at $1099 and $1199 respectively. Over 24 months, the difference in monthly price is $33 /month to $50 / month. Might the 17e start at $699 -- $100 more than what it replaced but still the least expensive new iPhone, monthly: $29/month.
Later, 3:38 p.m. CT: ChatGPT's take --
Putting it all together:
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I think it’s plausible that Apple hits ~7–10% growth in iPhone revenue in the 2025-2026 cycle if the form factor changes (like the Air model), pricing strategy, and AI hype all combine well.
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If those things lag, then the more conservative ~5% is probably more realistic.
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A true “supercycle” at 15%+ seems possible in a best-case scenario but is less likely unless there’s something very unexpected (a breakthrough feature, dramatic improvements in AI, or a big upgrade push in emerging markets).
Later, 3:22 p.m. CT: Gene Munster on CNBC --
- Gene Munster defines super-cycle as "a sales increase" of 15%
- earlier estimate from "Wall Street" for the previous cycle, 2024 - 2025: 2%
- actual estimate, now, from Wall Street" for the current cycle, 2024 - 2025: 5%
- Gene Munster's estimate for the next cycle, the iPhone 17 cycle, 2025 - 2026: 10%
Later, 12:31 p.m. CT: New models are selling out: the iPhone 17 Pro Max sold out very quickly after the September 9, 2025 announcement, with delivery times for some customers slipping to 7-10 business days. Note: the Pro Max is the most expensive iPhone model.
Apple's online store also experienced a significant increase in traffic, leading to brief outages for all four new models.
Later, 12:09 p.m. CT: if we do, in fact, see a super-cycle with regard to the iPhone 17 it will speak volumes about the anxiety of those folks talking about Apple and AI. And it will vindicate Tim Cook's seemingly "conservative" stance on AI. I think it will be absolutely fascinating. See below about Apple super-cycles.
Later, 12:01 p.m. CT: the orange Apple 17 Pro Max is already sold out! The Pro Max is the most expensive iPhone right now! Amazing. Link here. Is this to "honor" the "orange man"? MAGA.
Original Post
Why is Apple up today? FDA approves the hypertension feature on the Apple Watch. That was fast!
Apple:
The iPhone 17 AIR is going to fly off the shelves. Huge, huge Christmas gift. This could be the first time we start to see folks have two iPhones.
It's easy to see why 500 carriers worldwide support this innovation! Wow!
The iPhone 17 Air uses a digital, eSIM (embedded SIM) instead of a physical SIM card, allowing you to activate a cellular plan by downloading carrier profiles to the phone digitally. This technology, supported by over 500 carriers globally, offers greater convenience for managing plans, enhanced security as it can't be physically removed, and saves internal space to enable a thinner, lighter design for the device.
D.A. Davidson downgraded AAPL yesterday. Wow!
An "Apple supercycle" refers to an extended period of significantly higher iPhone sales driven by a major, new technology that encourages a large number of consumers to upgrade their devices, such as the arrival of 5G phones in 2020 and the anticipated launch of Apple Intelligence in 2024/2025. These cycles create a surge in unit sales and revenue for Apple as consumers update to the next-generation product.
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