Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Director's Cut Has Been Posted; North Dakota Crude Oil Production Data For November, 2017, Has Been Released; Crude Oil Production Increased Month-Over-Month; Producing Wells At An All-Time High; Natural Gas Production Hits Another All-Time High

Director's Cut for November, 2017, data, pending. The Director's Cut should be released today at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Link here. NDIC site for calendar and links for past and current Director Cuts here.

The usual disclaimer applies. I do "this" quickly and there will be typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Pricing, most current data I can find, January 12, 2018:

A reader told me that the NDIC uses the pricing at Flint Hills Resources for the oil prices reported at the monthly Director's Cut. At the link, one has a choice of clicking on "EDQ" or "Bulletins." Click on "Bulletins" and then click on "Download." The result should show up as a PDF on your desktop.


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The Data

Natural gas production: in April, 2017, it was reported that North Dakota produced a record amount of natural gas: in that month, natural gas production jumped 6% more than 1.8 billion cubic feet / day. What was North Dakota's natural gas production in the most recent month, November, 2017? Yup, another all-time high: 2.1 billion cubic feet / day.

Oil production
  • November, 2017: 1,194,920 bopd
  • October, 2017: 1,183,810 bopd
  • Delta:  an increase of 11,110 bbls
  • Delta: an increase of just under 1%
Producing wells:
  • November, 2017: 14,324 (an all-time high)
  • October, 2017: 14,253
  • Delta: an increase of 71 wells;
Permitting
  • December, 2017: 147
  • November, 2017: 119
  • October, 2017: 147 
  • September, 2017: 104
  • August, 2017: 101
  • July, 2017: 146 (huge jump)
Oil price (WTI), breakeven price statewide = $21
  • today: $54.75
  • December, 2017: $49.56
  • November: $49.75
  • October: $43.56
  • September: $39.56
  • August: $37.93
  • July: $35.83
  • June: $34.72
Rig count:
  • today: 56
  • December: 52
  • November: 54
  • October: 56
  • September: 56
  • August: 56
  • July: 58
  • June: 55
Wells not producing, total: about 2,375 not producing; that exceeds the number of wells completed in any year during the boom
  • waiting on completion: 883, down from 6 the end of October to the end of November
  • estimated inactive well count: 1,492, up 21 from the end of October to the end of December
Takeaway capacity:
  • November: takeaway capacity including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • October data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • September data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • August data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • July data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • June data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • May data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate (major change in verbiage)
Natural gas capture, has been getting "worse" and FBIR was a major issue; the trend has improved; it looks like ND has "turned the corner" on this issue
  • statewide: 86% (previous -- 84% [trend has improved)
  • FBIR: 75% (previous -- 74%)
  • goal: 88% through October 31, 2020; then 91%
  • comment: October, 2017, was terrible; it's getting better on FBIR

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