Director's Cut -- September, 2021, Data

Usual disclaimer: this is done for my benefit. I do it quickly. There will be content and typographical errors. I generally do not go back to correct errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here. 

From The Williston Herald: North Dakota production rises a half percent, but is still behind New Mexico by just a nose. Link here.

North Dakota added another rig this month, along with a half percent bump in production to 1.113 million barrels per day. That wasn’t enough to bump the state out of third place in the nation’s top oil producing shale plays, but it did bring it very close to New Mexico’s 1.12 million barrels per day in the Permian.

North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms said North Dakota doesn’t actually have to match New Mexico’s rig count of 81 to beat New Mexico production. A Bakken rig produces almost twice as much as rigs in the Permian, based on data from the Energy Information Administration, the agency that tracks national energy data.

“We just have to get to 50 and then we’ll start to gain on them,” Helms said. So we’ll just keep track of that and we’ll watch that number.”

Well completions for the month were one above the state’s revenue forecast at 41, and prices were 32 percent above forecast.

Comments:

• an incredibly good report;
• natural gas capture rate up from 92% to 94%
• look at that crude oil price appreciation from August, 2021
• two consecutive months with increased production m/m
• rig count pretty much steady but up slightly
• DUC count down slightly, but not worth a headline
  

Crude oil production:

• September, 2021: 1,113,410 (preliminary)
  
• August, 2021: 1,107,359 bopd (final)
  
• July, 2021: 1,076,594 bopd (revised)
  
• June, 2021: 1,133,498 bopd
• delta, bopd: +6,051 bopd
• delta, percent: +0.55%
• revenue forecast: 1.2 million --> 1.1 million --> 1.0 million bopd

North Dakota light sweet crude price:

• today: $74.75
  
• September: $73.75
  
• August: $60.94
• July, 2021: $64.80
• June, 2021: $63.62
• revenue forecast: $50

Natural gas production:

• September, 2021: 3,015,567 mcf/day: +1.83%; 94% capture rate (final)
• August, 2021: 2,961,434 mcf/day; +2.85; 92% capture rate (final)
  
• July, 2021: 2,879,408 mcf/day; capture, 90% (revised)
  
• June, 2021: 2,987,829 mcf/day; capture, 92%

Rig count:

• today: 34
• September, 2021: 27
  
• August, 2021: 29 (included two SWD rigs))
• July, 2021: 23 (ditto)
• June, 2021: 20 (maybe one SWD rig)

Wells:

• October, 2021
• permitted: 37
• completed: 41 (preliminary)
  
• September, 2021
• permitted: 69
• completed: 34 (revised, but same as reported initially)
• inactive: 1,696
• DUCS: 503
• producing: 17,041 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
  
• August, 2021:
• permitted: 79 (final)
  
• completed: 47 (final)
  
• inactive:1,672
• DUCs: 521
• producing: 16,956 (final)
  
• July, 2021:
• permitted: 40
• completed: 53 (final)
• inactive: 2,082
• DUCs: 521
• producing: 16,890
• June, 2021:
• permitted: 75
• completed: 41 (final)
• inactive: 1,839
• DUCs: 680
• producing: 16,844 (all-time high)

 DUCs and inactive wells are tracked here.