Link here. Economic strength, East vs West.
Link here. Putin and Xi exposed the great illusion of capitalism.
Link here. "The energy transition is dead. We just haven't realized it yet." -- Peter Zeihan
Wiki entry. Peter Zeihan, Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder (2014). From the book as "reported" by wiki:
Zeihan frames the current (c. 2014) geopolitical situation as the drawdown of the global economic system that the United States imposed upon the free world at Bretton Woods after its victory in World War II:
The United States used its overwhelming naval superiority to build a global trade network as a means towards the end of soviet containment, but is belatedly realizing that the Soviets are gone, that the rest of the world's markets don't have much to offer because they are entering dire economic straits due to aging demographies, and that America is insulated both geographically and, thanks to shale oil, energy independent (c. 2014).With that in mind, Zeihan predicts a U.S. disengagement from the world (2014), which in turn will leave other states to fend for themselves in securing access to food and energy commodities. He predicts an imminent period of international disorder:
American disinterest in the world means that American security guarantees are unlikely to be honored (c. 2014: since then Afghanistan, Ukraine).Competitions held in check for the better part of a century will return. Wars of opportunism will come back into fashion (c. 2014). History will restart (c. 2014). Areas that we have come to think of as calm will seethe as countries struggle for resources, capital, and markets. For countries unable to secure supplies (regardless of means), there is a more than minor possibility that they will simply fall out of the modern world altogether.
This is perhaps the most interesting post on this site since its inception.
From Peter Ziehan's newsletter website, this from 2015, repeat, 2015:
Ziehan is an American, raised as an adopted child in Iowa.
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