My thoughts exactly, link here. I see neither a recession nor stagflation:
Weekly jobs unemployment claims:
- five-decade low; lowest level since the year I graduated from high school, 1969
- well under 200,000
- came in at 187,000
- expectation: 210,000
- analyst's top concern, the meme, "the fast-spreading sub-variant of Omicron, known as BA.2"
- or, as I would suggest, "release the kraken"
Definition of stagflation: link here --
- high inflation rate
- some suggest the high-water mark will be 2Q22 and then slowly drop from there
- economic growth rate slows:
- of course it's going to slow; that's the Fed's hope; taking steps to slow high inflation will necessarily slow economic growth
- unemployment remains steadily high: not yet, and no signs that will happen.
Schwab conference yesterday:
- inflation watch
- recently came in at 7.91% or thereabouts; I thought it was closer to 7.9%;
- next reading could have an "8-handle"
- Schwab's perspective: that will be the high and from then on, slowly come down;
- they had a nice chart -- after a rate hike the market slumps -- time to normalize back to 100 on the market, after first rate hike:
- slow tightening: six months
- moderate tightening: six months
- fast tightening: 24 months
- two takeaways for me
- six-month buying opportunity;
- returns will definitely be less, but still "worthwhile"
- Schwab thinks we will see a "moderate" tightening policy
- the return on equities will be significantly slower than the last few years
- dividend-paying portfolio now in vogue.
- 10-Year Treasury: link here.Yield -- 2.377%. Up almost 6 basis points.
- DXY: link here. 98.79. Pretty much flat.
- Silver: link here. Up half-a-percent; $25.32.
- Gold: link here. Flat. $1,947.15.
- CBOE volatility index: link here. Explained at Investopedia. Continues to drop. 23.2.
EVs:
- Nikola has begun production of its first EV semi -- tractor for 18-wheeler.
- factory: Coolidge, AZ
- deliveries to begin 2Q22
- article did not provide prices or price comparisons
- intended for shorter routes; range of 350 miles
- a longer-range version; hydrogen fuel cell, is on track to begin shipping next year
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