Top Leasing Will Be Anecdotal But Won't Have Any Material Effect On Any Particular Operator

Link here from the Watford newspaper -- this link will break soon.

According to Allison Ritter, Public Information specialist for the N.D. Department of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas Division, for the next few years there will be an estimated 225 rigs in western North Dakota, and they’re not going anywhere.

Ritter states that 225 rigs can drill 1,100 to 2,700 wells per year. There are 5,000 wells needed to secure leases in western North Dakota, and 225 wells can drill enough wells to secure those leases in 2.5 years.
Even more staggering is the estimation that if those 225 rigs accomplish what the Oil and Gas Division is projecting, then there could be 33,000 wells drilled over the next 14  years.

“There are already 5,951 active wells in western North Dakota,” Ritter states. “If 2,700 wells are drilled per year, then approximately 28,000 additional wells will be drilled in the next 14 years.”

This is an incredibly interesting article. I was wondering how to get this information -- if all the leases could be secured.

It's been my contention that the leases can be secured, but message boards have suggested I am in the minority on this issue.

A big thank you to Kent for sending me this link. I would have missed it. Finally some numbers to work with regarding leases. My own database suggested that it would not be difficult for leases to be secured for the most part. There will be some anecdotal stories about top leasing, but I doubt they will have a material effect on any specific company.

In addition, 33,000 active wells could create 30,000 to 35,000 long-term jobs in western North Dakota over the next 14 years.

Presently, according to Ritter, the total rig count is 197, so that is still a ways off from the estimated 225 total rigs in western North Dakota.

The main reason being that, “A lot of rigs actually need to be built,” Ritter states. “The oil industry is moving faster than rigs can be made, so operators are building them and bringing them in as soon as they can.”

So, another data point explaining why we may not seeing the number of rigs increasing in the Bakken as fast as some said they would.