See disclaimer below.
Link here.
The Director's Cut is out, March 11, 2016, with January, 2016, data.
North Dakota oil production for the month of January decreased by about 2.5%, almost a 30,000 bopd decrease compared to the previous month, December, 2015.
Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.
Top four producing oil fields in the Bakken at this link.
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Some data points of interest with regard to the Red Queen
Number of producing wells
- January, 2016: 13,129 (preliminary, previous all-time high was 13,190 back in October, 2015)
- December, 2015: 13,128
The number of well completions has stabilized month-over-month: 81 (final) in December to 82 (preliminary) in January.
Daily oil production (bopd): dropped 31,000 bopd from previous month.
- January, 2016: 1,122,100 (preliminary, all-time high was December, 2014, at 1,227,483 bopd)
- December, 2015: 1,152,696 (final, revised)
- Delta: 29,507/ 1,181,787 = 2.65% decrease month-over-month (compare with 2.5% decline the previous month-over-month)
- November: oil/well/day: 88.79 bopd
- December: oil/well/day: 87.83 bopd
- January: oil/well/day: 85.45 bopd
Director's Cut
January 2016 Data
January, 2016, data is presented here.
I track the "cuts" here.
Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source.
Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.
Important data points:
- Today, pricing: $26.25
- the pricing of Bakken on the day the previous Director's Cut was posted: $16.50
- Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in February, 2016: $18.07
- Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in January, 2016: $21.13
- Fracklog: 945 (unchanged)
- Statewide flaring: 13%
- 1,152,696 - 1,122,100 = -30,596 bopd (almost identical as last month's decline)
- -30,596 / 1,152,696 = 2.56% decrease month-over-month
- January, 2016: 1,122,100 (preliminary)
- December, 2015:1,152,696 (final, revised)
- November, 2015: 1,181,787 (final, revised)
- October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised)
- September, 2015: 1,162,159 (final, revised)
- August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
- July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised)
- June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
- May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
- April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
- March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
- February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
- January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
- December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (all-time high)
- January, 2016: 13,129 (preliminary)
- December, 2015: 13,128 (final revised; increase from last month)
- November, 2015: 13,100 (final revised, decreased from last month)
- October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high)
- September, 2015: 13,036 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
- December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
- November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
- October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
- February, 2016: 70 drilling
- January, 2016: 78 drilling
- December, 2015: 95 (steep decline)
- November, 2015: 125
- October, 2015: 152
- September, 2015: 154
- August, 2015: 153
- July, 2015: 233
- June, 2015: 192
- May, 2015: 150
- April, 2015: 168
- March, 2015: 190
- February, 2015: 197
- January, 2015: 246
- All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
- March 11, 2016: $26.25
- January, 2016: $21.13
- February, 2016: $18.07
- February 17, 2016: $16.50 (post-boom low?)
- January, 2016: $21.13
- December, 2015: $27.57
- November, 2015: $32.16
- October, 2015: $34.37
- September, 2015: $31.17
- August, 2015: $29.52
- July, 2015: $39.41
- June, 2015: 47.73
- May, 2015: $44.70
- April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
- March, 2015: $31.47
- February, 2015: $34.11
- January, 2015: $31.41
- December, 2014: $40.74
- Today: 33 (lowest since March, 2007 when it was 33)
- February: 40
- January: 52
- December: 64
- November: 64
- October: 68
- September: 71
- August: 74
- July: 73
- June: 78
- May: 83
- April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
- March: 108
- February: 133
- January: 160
- December, 2014: 181
The number of well completions has stabilized month-over-month: 81 (final) in December to 82 (preliminary) in January.Well completions:
- January: 82 (preliminary)
- December: 81 (final)
- November: 77 (significant difference from preliminary figure)
- October: 43 (final)
- September: 123 (final)
- August: 115 (final)
- July: 119 (final)
- June: 149 (final)
- May: 116 (final)
- April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
- March: an astounding 194 (final)
- February: 42
- January: 63
- December: 173 (preliminary)
- November: 48
- capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (had been 80%)
- capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80% (had been 90%)
- capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
- capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
- capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
- flaring capture percentage in January, 2016: 87%
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