Friday, October 6, 2023

Week 40: October 2, 2023 -- October 8, 2023

Locator: 45673TOPSTORY.

Top, top story:

  • Israel: declares war; Hamas invades; Iran all over this
    • for GOP: should Israel give up some land to stop the conflict? Maybe just negotiate surrender terms?

Top story:

  • Nobel prizes announced: includes mRNA (proxy for Covid vaccine)
  • rabies cure? A bridge too far for the GOP?
  • Kevin McCarthy kicked out as Speaker of the House.
    • 45 GOP reps now call it "grave injustice"
    • first time in US history for party in power to "kick out" its Speaker
    • McCarthy instrumental in preventing government shutdown

Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues
  • US House refuses to provide funding that the president wanted for Ukraine
    • US House seems to support Putin's invasion of Ukraine
    • GOP apparently wants US to stay out of European conflicts; WWII was enough
    • MAGA: "not a dollar more for Ukraine"

Top international energy story:

  • Saudi Arabia and Russia say they will maintain production cuts

Top national non-energy story:

  • space wars: Amazon takes on StarLink (Elon Musk)
  • Biden directs money to re-start construction of unfinished "Trump" wall;
    • makes it sound like decision to stop building was misunderstanding of bureaucrats in charge of funding the wall; 
    • certainly doesn't express it as change in policy
    • Bill Maher weighs in
  • GDPNow remains at 4.9% for 3Q23 estimate;
  • mortgage rate trending toward 8%;
  • US stock market plunges
  • hard-landing anticipated by some/many/most analysts
  • renewable energy transition not going well at all
    • IMF says cost of transition not sustainable
    • rising interest rates killing solar, wind, and EV development 
  • it appears BRK / Warren Buffett is liquidating his HPQ position

Top national energy story:

  • WTI: drops the fastest it's dropped in recent memory -- goes from $90 to $82 almost overnight
  • XOM appears to be in talks to buy Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) in $60-billion deal

Focus on frackingmost recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

  • first winter freeze warning for most off the state this past week

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • DAPL: it ain't over until it's over -- new EIS to include carbon cost
  • active rigs relatively unchanged; maxing out at 34, it appears

Geoff Simon's quick connects:

Bakken economy:

  • holding in there -- but active rigs running about 34

Commentary:

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