Hiring -- Accelerated -- Misery Index Begins When -- Recession? What Recession? October 6, 2023

Locator: 45661JOBS. 

Link here.

Accelerated sharply.

Did not "maintain."

Did not "increase slightly."

Did not " accelerate."

What did "it" do? It "accelerated sharply. "Much more than expected."

All things being equal, this would suggest more Americans are doing better this month than they were doing last month.

Another rate hike bothers me not. I love to see Americans working. It beats the alternative.

Anticipating reports from ZeroHedge, Breitbart, Fox News, and Al-Jazeera.

The bond story: link here.

So much for that 60-40 mix. 

Except for "US Savings Bonds" decades ago, I've never invested in bonds. I've never understood them.

It will be fascinating to see what a "hard landing" looks like.

How long have "we" been talking about / predicting the next recession, a "hard landing"? I've long forgotten when this all started but it's been at least two years. We're now into 2024 -- when we will see a recession / "hard landing." It is really, really hard to time the market.

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MAGA, Undocumented Tourists, And New Hires

One of my readers suggests that MAGA folks are noting that the number of undocumented tourists streaming across the board exactly equals the number of new hires, and that this cannot be a coincidence. 

Let's say that's accurate: that the number of new hires exactly equals the number of undocumented tourists streaming across the border.

What does this say about the work ethic of "Americans." There must be a lot of jobs they won't take? Like 336,000 such jobs -- in just one month. Quick: name those jobs.

What does this say about the "quality" / work ethic of those streaming across the border? They're willing to work despite overwhelming obstacles. They learn fast -- not just the job but also how to fit into the US economy. Smart folks.

What does this say about employers able to train these folks this quickly to handle 1st world economy jobs? Really, really dedicated, smart employers.

What does this say about the relationship between tech and all these new jobs?

Is there any other country in the world that has this "problem" and the means to manage it? I don't think so.

Now, shifting gears:

If one is not convinced this has anything to do with undocumented tourists, where are all these new hires coming from?

Wow, wow, wow! That's the real question.

The answer. There are at least three pools from which these new hires are coming.

One pool: we read about it in Forbes or some similar business magazine -- do you remember all those over 55-year-old seniors who dropped out of the work force / retired "early" due to Covid? "Everyone" said these folks would never return to the work force. In fact they have returned and they are returning to the work force -- for several reasons: they're bored at home; their spouses are driving them nuts; they're savings are running out; mailbox money (social security, pensions) is not keeping up with inflation; and, insert your reasons here.

The second pool: all those folks who have college loans to pay.

The third pool (similar to the first pool): spouses -- generally women / moms -- who are now able to return to work now that daycare centers were closed during Covid lockdowns.

These new hires? This has nothing / very little to do with undocumented tourists -- it's against the law in most states to hire them / if not illegal, major obstacles -- like lack of a social security number, just to name the first obstacle. Lack of transportation to get to their jobs.