So Much Going On Today -- I Won't Be Able To Keep Up -- October 6, 2023

Locator: 45659B.   

Many readers writing me; it will take time to get back to everyone. A nice problem to have.

Overwhelming number of issues / stores to cover. Just the tip of the iceberg:

Energy stories:

• very clear that renewable energy is really, really struggling --
• it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil -- WTI has reset to new trading range: $80 - $85
  
• XOM-PXD
• New England winter
• OPEC+: Saudi struggling; Russia doing well; 
• demand-destruction due to pricing; Josh over at twitter loses all credibility
  

Political stories:

• Trump seems stronger than ever, politically; "kingmaker" in the US House?
• the "wall" -- huge, huge, huge story -- sanctuary cities are in a panic
• geopolitics: a Lindbergh-Nazi moment for MAGA-Ukraine?
  

Economy:

• mixed signals
• GDPNow: still at 4.9% for 3Q23 estimate;
• everything else suggests a very, very hard landing in 2024 -- election year

Investing:

• Warren Buffett gets below 10% on HPQ -- very, very important milestone; link here;
• we're not going to see any more reports of Buffett sales of HPQ in real-time
• XOM-PXD: who's next?
• XOM's cash surges
• perhaps the most interesting "item" popping up for small mom/pop retail investors: tax-loss harvesting -- 
• once this was available only to the multi-millionaires; 
• now much more available; may have started with Schwab; now I see it everywhere
• as usual, some questions come up
• is "tax reduction vs growth in net income" two different "methods" of investing? I honestly don't know; beginning to explore.

Science / medicine:

• Nobel prizes -- more to discuss
• Iranian woman today -- Peace Prize
• Covid / "seasonal flu" -- weekly data to be released today -- getting close to week when it all begins
  

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.28

Sunday, October 8, 2023: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 589 for the year
39650, conf, Ovintiv, Fleck 150-99-6-7-9HLW,
39337, conf, CLR, Hegler 10-13H,
38838, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-6H,

Saturday, October 7, 2023: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 586 for the year
None.

Friday, October 6, 2023: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 586 for the year
39649, conf, Ovintiv, Fleck 150-100-1-12-8H,
38840, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-6H,

RBN Energy: a new report on upstream consolidation in the Permian and other key plays. Archived.

Even now, three-plus years after the start of the oil and gas industry’s biggest consolidation in a quarter century, hardly a month goes by without another major M&A announcement. Just this week, Civitas Resources said it will acquire acreage and production in the Permian from Vencer Energy for $2.1 billion. The primary drivers of these deals — many of which are valued in the billions of dollars — are clear. Among other things, E&Ps are seeking scale and the economies of scale that come with it. They also have come to believe that it makes more sense to grow production through M&A than through aggressive capital spending. And, for some producers not yet involved in the all-important Permian, acquiring even a smaller E&P there provides a foothold to build on. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our newly released Drill Down report on the past 12 months of upstream M&A activity in the U.S. oil patch.

So far, the 2020s have been a period of almost unprecedented consolidation within the oil and gas industry. Not since the late 1990s has U.S. merger-and-acquisition activity among producers been so frenetic. Back then, a plunge in crude oil prices spurred mega-deals that helped to form many of today’s supermajors and large E&P independents: Exxon joined with Mobil, BP with Amoco and ARCO, Chevron with Texaco, Anadarko with Union Pacific and Kerr McGee, ConocoPhillips with Burlington Resources, and Devon with Mitchell Energy and Ocean Energy.