Friday; A Cold Day Across The Nation; Earthquakes In England, California; Gasoline Is Cheap This Year -- EIA -- May 22, 2015

Earthquake hits Kent, England. Residents stoic, saying they will re-build. Near the white cliffs of Dover. No reports of any part of England falling into the sea.

Accuweather is reporting a "freeze day" across the northeast. [Based on Merkel's comments out of Germany in the past 24 hours, my hunch is that Greece is feeling the chill also.] This is almost June, isnt' it? Memo to self: the globalwarming2014_2015 tag "goes away" as of June 30th. Then, the globalwarming2015_2016 tag begins. Antarctic sea ice has not been receding. Rising oceans remain the Coast Guard's biggest concern, according to the president.

After the initial surge, it is estimated that Apple will sell 30,000 watches/day. Assuming there's a $100 mark-up average, that's $3,000,000 / day. I pulled the $100 figure out of thin air.

Speaking of "thin air," that phrase was coined by Shakespeare. I mention that because yesterday, while reading a review of Lana Del Rey in an English tabloid, Shakespeare was cited. The writer was spot on; comment from the readers suggested there are still some folks who think William wrote all those plays and sonnets.

For those interested in honeybees and honey, look for a copy of The Rooftop Beekeeper: A Scrappy Guide to Keeping Urban Honeybees, Megan Paska, c. 2014. After perusing this book, all I can say is there should be at least one apiary class taught in each elementary school in Williston. 

This is not an investment site. Investors need to stay away from this site. No one should make any financial or investment decisions based on what one reads in this blog or thinks they may have read in this blog. The webmaster has no formal training and no background in the oil and gas industry and even less experience in the world of high finance. I do understand the concept of double-entry bookkeeping though I doubt I could do it if I had to. Having said all that, there are two interesting posts from two different sites today regarding energy. One is from Merrill Lynch. The other is from 24/7 Wall Street.  I don't know if I can find the 24/7 Wall Street article; I read it on my iPad early this morning while lying in bed waiting for breakfast to be delivered. It wasn't. LOL. Anyway, from Merrill Lynch, at a Seeking Alpha site:

• BofA Merrill Lynch has become more optimistic on the energy sector, on both a small and large cap basis, citing attractive valuations, a performance that has lagged behind the rebound in oil prices, and analysts beginning to revise earnings expectations higher.
• Savita Subramanian and her analyst team remain biased toward the “big, old and ugly” energy stocks - the mega-cap leaders which have shown long-term staying power and that typically pay outstanding dividends.

Oh, my mistake. The 24/7 Wall Street article was simply pinging off the Merrill Lynch story. Disregard.

Something tells me the "secret" Obama trade bill is going to be great for investors: Orrin Hatch is in favor of the bill as are most of the members of his party, and Pocahontas is against the bill. That speaks volumes. I think, like Joe Biden would say, this is a big, freaking, deal. Very freaky.

Zeits on Marathon: Seeking Alpha link here. Marathon:

• selling non-core assets: Africa, and probably Iraqi assets
• divested its Norway business last year
• closed positions in Angola last year
• back in 2012, agreed to sell its Alaska Cook inlet asset
• relinquished licenses in Indonesia
• sold two of its blocks in Kurdistan
• is attempting to see UK North Sea assets
• in discussions to sell interest in Athabasca Oil Sans Project in Alberta

So, what's left? Growing its US shale with primary focus on the Eagle Ford.

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Active rigs:

	5/22/2015	05/22/2014	05/22/2013	05/22/2012	05/22/2011
Active Rigs	82	189	185	213	179

RBN Energy: the impact of shale oil on America's refiners.

First a look at where U.S. refiners source their crude supplies. A chart at the link shows the three sources of U.S. crude supply – domestic production, imports, and inventory draw for the period since January 2011 according to monthly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). 

The big story in U.S. crude supply over the past 4 years has been the transition from imports providing the majority of supplies (63% in January 2011- 9.2 MMb/d) to providing just 44% of supplies today (7.1 MMb/d in February 2015).

That reduction in imports came about because of the increase in U.S. domestic production – primarily from the three major shale basins – the Williston in North Dakota, and the Eagle Ford and the Permian in Texas.

Total U.S. production jumped 67% from 5.5 MMb/d in January 2011 to 9.2 MMb/d in February 2015 – increasing its share of crude supply over the period from 37% to 57%. That dramatic rate of increase in production has now slowed to a crawl at best as the price crash has led producers to reduce budgets and cut back new drilling.

However while the slow down impacts the rate of increase in production, the overall average production in 2015 is  expected to remain at least as high as it was in 2014 – keeping the balance of supplies in favor of domestic crude over imports.

EIA's "energy cookie":

On May 18, the U.S. average retail price for gasoline was $2.74 per gallon ($/gal), or 92¢ per gallon (¢/gal) lower than at the same time last year. This is the lowest average price heading into the Memorial Day weekend—the traditional start of the summer driving season—since 2009. Lower gasoline prices reflect lower crude oil prices, with the spot price of North Sea Brent crude oil at more than $45 per barrel ($/b) lower than the same time last year, despite having increased more than $10/b since the beginning of February. --- EIA

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ObamaCare

This was predicted from the beginning. The blog wrote this story three years ago. ObamaCare, written by the big insurers, was sure to drive out competition, leaving one or two BIG players in each region. No competition? Higher premiums.  Today, The Wall Street Journal is reporting some huge premium increases for 2016 (and folks wonder why the economy continues to sputter):

Major insurers in some states are proposing hefty rate boosts for plans sold under the federal health law, setting the stage for an intense debate this summer over the law’s impact.

In New Mexico, market leader Health Care Service Corp. is asking for an average jump of 51.6% in premiums for 2016. The biggest insurer in Tennessee, BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee, has requested an average 36.3% increase. In Maryland, market leader CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield wants to raise rates 30.4% across its products. Moda Health, the largest insurer on the Oregon health exchange, seeks an average boost of around 25%.

All of them cite high medical costs incurred by people newly enrolled under the Affordable Care Act.

It is what it is. 

For investors, great news. This is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions or financial decisions based on what you read here. The ObamaCare premiums will flow to the bottom line -- and folks will still hesitate getting their medical care because the co-pays and deductibles are unaffordable. Remember: ObamaCare is essentially very expensive catastrophic health care insurance with birth control thrown in for free.

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Fracking In California? Las Vegas?

Two earthquakes being reported in California in last 24 hours: 4.1 north of Napa County and 3.3 near Paso Robles. Late afternoon, Friday, 5.4 magnitude in Las Vegas. [Las Vegas quake later revised to 4.8.]

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Off The Net For Awhile

And with that, I'm off for awhile. I will do some biking (jacket weather; it's going to be cold in the DFW area today) and then catch up with our 10-month-old granddaughter for a luncheon date at the French pastry restaurant on Main Street, Grapevine, TX.