Locator: 49077RAMBLING.
I don't know a shorthand way to capture the subject that interests me most right now
The question has to do with Apple and AI.
I've spent a long time with ChatGPT this past week discussing the exact moment when Apple took down Nokia.
I've posted a lot of those conversations on the blog.
Discussion: the exact moment when the decision was made by Steve Jobs that ultimately led to the demise of Nokia and the unprecedented rise of Apple.
It was a 3-minute (maybe a 30-second moment inside that 3-minute presentation) when Steve Jobs made a life-changing decision. It was 1,000% intuition / inspiration.
In short, two pieces came together, for Steve Jobs: finger-swipe-on-glass.
That moment was an earthquake in technology and Nokia should have felt the earth move under its feet.
Now, some analysts are suggesting that when it comes to AI, Tim Cook, like Nokia decades ago, should be feeling the earth move under his feet. Tim Cook is not known for Steve Jobs' intuition / innovation.
The question is whether the AI issue is "a finger-swipe-on-glass" issue.
I can argue it both ways.
But at the end of the day, for me, after lots of thinking, lots of reading on this issue, it comes down to this for me:
Finger-swipe-on-glass:
- revolutionary
- absolute inspiration
- incredibly difficult to pull off technically
- being first would turn out to be critical
- caught the entire industry by surprise (if you doubt me, watch the Steve Ballmer interview when he laughs about the $500-iPhone)
AI embedded in IOS:
- evolutionary
- everybody is doing it or aware of it
- lots of social-political-cultural-security issues: has to be done right; getting it right is more important than being first; being first is not critical
- no longer a surprise
To calm investors: Apple needs to be excite / surprise investors with an AI announcement.
For the company: Apple needs to get "it" right. Two components of "it":
- getting AI right with regard to functionality;
- having right business model for incorporating AI into Apple (in-house vs buying vs partnering)
Reality?
- AI-embedded-in-IOS evolution is not analogous to the finger-swipe-on-glass revolution.
Another way to look at this:
- finger-swipe-on-glass was the whole enchilada
- finger-swipe-on-glass is sui generis;
- finger-swipe-on-glass is Apple
- if you don't agree, think what Apple would be today if all of a sudden something better came along that completely obsoleted finger-swipe-on-glass and it was not invented by Apple
- AI-embedded-in-IOS is but a part of the whole enchilada
- users already have access to multiple chatbots each with their own advantages / disadvantages
Bottom line:
- Tim Cook is not feeling the earth move under his feet
- ten years from now, maybe sooner, we will know whether he should have
