Re-Posting: Millennials -- December 7, 2018

Locator: 10001DEMOG.

 

Updates

] July 12, 2025: link here.

Generation Alpha (Gen Alpha for short) are the demographic group coming after Generation Z.

According to researchers and popular media sources, Gen Alpha starts as early as 2010 and ends in 2024 or 2025.

Several sources specify 2013 as the start date and an ending year of 2028.

This generation was named after the first letter in the Greek alphabet. Most members of Generation Alpha are children of Millennials.

July 12, 2025: link here.

Generation Z (often shortened to Gen Z), also known as zoomers, is the demographic cohort succeeding Millennials and preceding Generation Alpha.

Researchers and popular media use the mid-to-late 1990s as starting birth years and the early 2010s as ending birth years, with the generation loosely being defined as people born around 1997 to 2012.

Most members of Generation Z are the children of Generation X.

July 12, 2025: link here.

Millennials, also known as Generation Y or Gen Y, are the demographic cohort following Generation X and preceding Generation Z.

Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years, with the generation typically being defined as people born from 1981 to 1996.

Most millennials are the children of Baby Boomers. In turn, millennials are often the parents of Generation Alpha.

January 9, 2025: Xennials, 1977 - 1983. Wiki entry.

• coined 2014
• micro-generation: on the cusp of the Generation X and Millennial demographic cohorts
• analog childhood and digital young adulthood
• analog: "the big hand is on the 9 and the little hand ..." 
• digital: flashing digits
  
• added to ODE, 2020; added to OED, 2021
• 1977 - 1983 (1980)
  
• 14 years old: 1994 -- 
• Jeff Bezos founded Cadabra, later named Amazon
  
• 20 years old: 2000
• dot-com bubble burst
• Compaq iPaq: first wi-fi-enabled device
• GPS authorized by Congress for public use
  
• personal milestones
• our first daughter: 1979
• our second daughter: 1983

May 9, 2023: Gen A (alpha: born after 2010); first mention. Sophia.

April 16, 2022: how Gallup "defines" the generations, or, link here (wiki, slightly different):

• generation Z (born 1997 - 2004): 18 - 25 years old. Arianna (2003), maybe Olivia (2007).
  
• millennials (Y) (born 1981 - 1996): 26 - 41 years old. Laura (1983)
• generation X (born 1965 - 1980): 42 - 57 years old. Kiri (1979), Josh.
  
• baby boomers (born 1946 - 1964): 58 - 76 years old. Bruce, May.
  
• traditionalists (born before 1946): over 76 years old.

March 2, 2019: two "wings" of Millennials -- generation Y (1981 - 1991) and generation Z (1991 - 2001). Broad definition of "millennials": those reaching adulthood in the early 21st century. That's a very, very wide range. That would almost include some 30-ish year-old parents with teenage millennials -- in other words, millennials raising millennials.

December 8, 2018: see also --

• 2030 - turning point in US demographics; aging population (defined as >65 years of age)
• infoplease

From infoplease:

• 0 to 19: 80 million: (generation Z, iGen)
• 20 to 34: 60 million (the millennials)
• 35 to 54: 80 million (generation X)
• 55 to 74: 40 million (baby boomers)
• over 74: 20 million

December 8, 2018: in the original post I mentioned that it might be wise to take Occasional-Cortex seriously. From wiki:

Post-Millennial is a name given by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and Pew Research in statistics published in 2016 showing the relative sizes and dates of [Generation Z, the iGen].

The same sources showed that as of April 2016, the Millennial generation surpassed the population of Baby Boomers in the USA (77 million vs. 76 million in 2015 data), however, the Post-Millennials were ahead of the Millennials in another Health and Human Services survey (69 million vs. 66 million).

Original 

Re-posting from an earlier post. Our oldest granddaughter was talking to me about the various generations on our drive back from water polo practice last night. I had forgotten how long the "millennial" generation lasts, for those born between 1984 and 2000. So, those who are as young as 18 to as "old" as 34 years of age in 2018. Wow, that's the group that are now becoming the middle-level managers of US businesses, and soon to take over as CEOs, project managers, etc. Some are being elected to Congress.

Someone mentioned yesterday that it would be wise to take Occasional-Cortex seriously. She may be a ditz, but she will change the conversation, and sometimes that is all it takes. Age 29, born 1989. A real millennial.

Beto: age 46, but first elected to US House in 2012, six years ago, age 40. Born 1972, generation X.

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Demographics

Wiki now has a page on "millennials."

Follows "Generation X"; precedes "Generation Z." Therefore, also known as "Generation Y." 

Note: the correct spelling -- two "n's."

For various reasons, I'm going to update the following post by making one change. I'm changing the years of birth for millennials (previous, 1983 - 1998) to 1984 - 2000 (comes pretty close to range that wiki gives).

Millennials. Lots of talk these past few weeks about "millennials." Time to re-look at the "definitions. From an earlier post:

I had forgotten the "definition" of "Generation Z" but vaguely recalled blogging about it:

Definitions:

• iGen, generation Z, centennials: 2000 -

• oldest iGen: 2000 - 2005 (my thoughts -- teens in 2018)
• middle iGen: 2006 - 2011 (my thoughts -- middle schoolers in 2018)
• younger iGen: 2012 - (my thoughts -- pre-K in 2018)

• millennials, generation Y, 1984 - 2000 

• younger millennials (part of generation Y, children of baby boomers): 1992 - 2000
• older millennials (part of generation Y, children of baby boomers): 1984 - 1991 (in 2017:  26 - 34)

• generation X: 1965 - 1983 (no precise dates, late baby  boomers)
• baby boomers: 1946 - 1964  

Definitions (from this site)

• iGen, generation Z, centennials: 1996 --
• millennials or generation Y: 1977 - 1995 (18-year span)
• generation X: 1965 - 1976 (11-year span)
• baby boomers: 1946 - 1964 (18-year span)
• traditionalists or silent generation: born 1945 and before

Birth years important to me:

• 2014: youngest iGen
• 2006: middle iGen
• 2003: oldest iGen

At age five years of life, for

• the youngest iGen, 2019 - Apple's iPhone X
• the middle iGen, 2012 - Apple's iPhone 4s
• the oldest iGen, 2009 - Apple's iPhone 3g

There was a huge jump from iPhone 3, 4 to iPhone 6, 7, 8 and, then iPhone X. Based on iPhone models, the middle and oldest iGen generations are very similar; however, the youngest iGen generation is almost a new generation, being so much different than older iGen individuals.

Gen X Retirement -- Much Better Shape Than Anyone Can Imagine -- December 20, 2025

Locator: 49748WEALTH.
Locator: 49748DEMOGRAPHICS.

Intergenerational wealth transfer: wiki. 

Okay, this is the headline:  

What is Jessica Hall missing?

 It takes a village. Link here.

Two data points, intergenerational wealth transfer -- 

• through 2045: $84 trillion 
• through 2048 (just three years later): $124 million.

Note the closing date: 2048.

But there's more. 

Why did we stop at 2045? Or 2048? Why not 2050?

Gen X: 1965 - 1980 - (Kiri, 1977; Laura, 1980)

• 2045: 65 years old - 80 years old (68 years old, 65 years old)
• 2048: 68 years old - 83 years old 
• 2050: 70 years old - 85 years old (73 years old; 70 years old)

Regardless, something much more has not yet been factored in: the one big beautiful bill, President Trump s/2025; goes into effect 2026.

Gen X and Millennials (1981 - 1996, Gen Y) don't have anything to worry about. At least with their retirement.

Conversation Starters For Holiday Meals In North Dakota -- 2022 -- Probably Will Still Work In 2023

Locator: 10010THANKSGIVINGTALK.

Link here. That link is broken. Here's a new one. Do not click on that link unless you like clickbait and tons of ads. These are the tips:

Thanksgiving is almost here, so it's time to make sure you have deflection tactics to avoid getting sucked into an unwanted conversation with family... or...

You can take one of these carefully crafted talking points to pull the pin and wait for the fun.

For fun, we have divided the topics into categories for your test subject, target, loved ones by age demographics.

Gen Z and Millennials:

By just clumping these two together, the seeds have been planted. Gen Z and Millennials can't stand each other's humor, personalities, or styles, so pitting them against themselves is by itself popcorn-worthy.

1. Gen Z are still children; their opinions are not wanted or needed, and they should be banished to the kids table where they won't be seen or heard. Ignore them and what they have to say; treat them like toddlers.

2. If you are FORCED to interact with one, every time you hear a young spry Gen Z'er say something that you don't understand, stop them in the middle of what they are saying and have them explain.  Even if you are not part of that conversation, heck, even if you know what they are talking about, drill down on having them spell it out.

Millennials, on the other hand, are an ocean of anxiety and insecurities; attack them. You may even be able to make a Millennial completely lose it without even having to say a word.

3. Judge Millennials by not only their individual life choices but their generation as a whole. For example, "Millennials have ruined the housing market" and "Millennials only care about avocado toast, latte's, and energy drinks."  Even if your Millennial is a blue-collar home owner, lumping them in with those who give the generation a bad name and doubling down when you need to is an easy path to paydirt.

4. We have all heard, "When are you going to give me a grandchild?"  It's tried and true because it is so successful. Challenge their worth as a person by what they don't have in their lives: children, their own house, a "real job".  For an extra cherry on top, mention how a family member or peer of theirs has already achieved those things.

Gen X

The Gen X'er can be a bit tricky to handle.  In their long time on this earth, they have become wise, but they are also prone to falling prey to their own hubris.

5. Find something that they love and say something disastrously wrong about it. "Did you know that Michael Jorden was suspended for gambling, and the NBA and him agreed that it was a retirement?" or even better, "I heard that the Pioneer Woman has all of her cookware made in Lithuanian sweat shops."  The options are limitless and hilarious.

6. Being Facebook friends with them is almost a must.  Pre-select a couple of hot-takes they have had on Facebook; if you don't know anything about the situation, find out the opposite stance, save some ammo, and pounce. "I just read that Thee-Sided Beauty Supply is a mid-level marketing scheme, and that's the same as a pyramid scheme, say Aunt Patty, didn't you use to sell that?" Pull out a chart that describes why the thing they love is bad and start the countdown to meltdown.

Boomers

Boomer's are like someone who was raised by wolves; they look exactly like you and I do, albeit with a few more wrinkles, but if they are triggered, they will turn into feral beasts.

7. This one is so simple yet so sure-fire that it should be illegal.  Loudly overenunciate everything you are saying to make sure that they can hear you, and then, when they are just about to lose their wits, ask them about a completely made-up conversation "DID. YOU. CALL. DR. NRKIK. ABOUT. YOUR. IBS. MEDICINE. YET?" Chef's kiss, gaslight it up all day long.

8. Boomers are once again children; their opinions are not wanted or needed, and they should be banished to the kids table where they won't be seen or heard. Ignore them and what they have to say; treat them like toddlers who ruined the economy for everyone else. Dismiss everything they say as a cooky take from an addled mind.

Grab Bag

Here are a couple more people that you may run into on Thanksgiving that you can swing away at.

9. Pet People: It's as simple as telling pet people that they are not real parents, and having just a pet does not count, and you could never love it as much as your sister loves her twins Skeyeler and Neeb. You can also talk about how dangerous such-and-such a breed is.

10. The Already Bickering Couple: Start things off strong by mentioning an unrelated married couple and how you are so glad that Simon has cut down on his drinking and that Peggy has worked on her Amazon addiction. Follow it up by asking if they are planning to get away anytime soon, and then mention how well you have been doing at getting in shape.  Walk away for a little while; it's better to let the pressure cooker percolate.

The main thing is just to get out there and enjoy creating a little chaos, or, you know, full-blown psychological warfare.

For Investors: Demographics -- August 17, 2022

We touched on this earlier. A huge story that I don't see much discussed. 

But this is huge. 

The "millennials" will be larger in number than the baby boomers. It's possible the "millennial" population" is already larger than the existing "baby boomer" population. The former is growing, the latter is dying off.

How did that happen?

For investors? Bullish. 

Every "millennial" will want an iPhone. Many / most will get one. 

How many / what percent of baby boomers had an iPhone?

Just saying.

Need to add one thing:

Every "Gen Z" will want an iPhone: many / most already have a starter phone. Sophia has a starter iPhone -- wi-fi only; no sim card; and no monthly feel. That will come in two years. And Sophia, age 8 years, already knows what a sim card is. LOL. 

By the way, the Apple iPhone blue / green "alert" is one of the cleverest marketing tools ever thought up by anyone. There is talk that Apple is under great pressure to discontinue that "alert." It's seen by many to be very, very discriminatory, like calling monkeypox, "monkeypox."

Now, to clarify: the millennials overtook the baby boomers as America's largest generation back in 2020. 

• The millennials are aged 26 to 41 years of age, this year, 2022.

• In 2024, the age spread will be 28 to 43 years of age.

More than half of that age group -- the millennials -- will vote for the Democratic nominee for US president. More than half.

A lot of folks in Wyoming voted conservatively, but there are not a lot of folks in Wyoming. 

Florida is likely to go from deep red to purple, with a red governor, and a newly elected blue US senator. I am no longer (never was) convinced of a red wave in 2024.  

The big four:

• California: deep blue
• Texas: light red
• Florida: purple
• New York: deep blue

The era of the silent majority calling the shots is over. 

The boomers, aging, will appreciate the Democratic platform:

• more spending on health;
• they won't worry about the deficit (they will talk about it, but they won't worry about it)
• they will vote their pocketbook / invest to win
• boomers are driving less and less as they get older; price of gasoline becomes less of an issue;
• it will be all about healthcare and monthly utility cost (electricity, natural gas)
• inflation? 
  
• boomers tend not to move residences; housing/rental (other than used cars) is major issue with regard to inflation
• boomers less affected by inflation than gen x'ers
  
• gen x'ers more affected by inflation than millennials -- but both affected to similar extent
  
• millennials: will adapt to higher inflation
  

Generation X won' turn out to vote. 

The southern surge: will disproportionately affect blue cities with populations greater than 500,000. Elsewhere: no impact. 

See this post.

Generations defined:

More here:

• in graphic form:

Intergenerational Wealth Transfer -- Update -- November 14, 2025

Locator: 49420WEALTH. 

From AI:

The "Great Wealth Transfer" is estimated to involve tens of trillions of dollars, with figures ranging from $84 trillion to over $124 trillion. This massive amount is expected to be passed from older generations, primarily Baby Boomers, to younger generations like Gen X and Millennials over the next few decades. 

While many sources cite the $84 trillion figure, others predict the total could be higher, with one estimate projecting over $100 trillion. 

• $84 trillion: A frequently cited estimate for the total wealth transfer over the next two decades, according to Comerica Bank, Bankrate, and Citizens Bank. 
• $85 trillion: Another estimate for the amount to be passed down from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to Gen X and Millennials. 
• $124 trillion: A higher-end estimate for the total intergenerational wealth transfer over the next two decades, as reported by ASPPA, U.S. Bank, and Alkami Technology. 
• Over $100 trillion: A more recent estimate from CNBC and Investments & Wealth Institute. 

Two links:

Fortune, link here: 

 Merrill Lynch, link here.

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Autumn In North Texas

What We Will Be Talking About Today -- Day 2 Of The Shutdown -- October 2, 2025

Locator: 49267ARCHIVES.   

See disclaimer. Scroll to bottom of this page. 

Yom Kippur: fast began last night, Wednesday, October 1, 2025, and will end at sundown tonight, Thursday, October 2, 2025. Day of Atonement; holiest day of the year in Judaism. 

A moveable fast, annually between late September and early October. Alongside the related holiday of Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur is one of the two components of the High Holy Days of Judaism. It is also one of the Ten Days of Repentence. Next up: Sukkot, Shemini Atzeret and Simchat Torah. The latter two mark the conclusion of the holiday cycle with a joyous celebration of the annual Torah reading.  

Most exciting chip stock today: AMD. But look at MU: up $15 yesterday (9%) and up again today in pre-market trading. AVGO: up over $10 (over 3%) in pre-market trading today.

Investing story right now: ETFs. Link here to The WSJ. Best ETFs right now. Motley Fool. SCHD; VOO; VXUS. Dividend yield comparison is interesting. 3.76%; 1,15%; 2.76%. 

Tea leaves: shutdown won't end before October 13, 2025.  

Shutdown: wow, the fog is beginning to clear. Schumer and Jeffries -- the real losers; it's all about AOC. 

This is being opined by several commentators today; most surprising -- that very theme in Scott Bessent's interview with CNBC's Joe Kernen this morning. Many data points: most concerning -- Schumer / Jeffries "plan" would add $1.3 trillion to US debt. But it's all about AOC. Schumer is in an existential fight with AOC. AI calls this meme largely driven by conservative, political opponents, ad speculation s ahead of the 2028 elections We'll see. So many story lines in this government shutdown. We're only into day 2. 

Scott Bessent: said Trump will unveil huge aid package for US farmers next Tuesday, October 7, 2025. Later: President Trump announces $10 billion aid package for US farmers. 

Scott Bessent, AI prompt:

How / when did Scott Bessent get involved with soybean farming in North Dakota? This seems to be a fascinating revelation. 

Scott Bessent: soybean farm in North Dakota. AI prompt: scott bessent soybean farm in "North Dakota". One of many links here. The New York Times article, August 13, 2025, link here. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has failed to fully comply with an agreement that required him to divest his financial assets, posing potential conflicts of interest as he leads the Trump administration’s economic policy agenda, The New York Times reported today.

“The biggest potential conflict of interest for Mr. Bessent is his ownership of as much as $25 million of soybean and corn farmland in North Dakota,” the Times said. “The land spans thousands of acres in Burleigh, Kidder, Eddy, Benson and Wells counties, and earns Mr. Bessent as much as $1 million a year in rental income, according to his financial disclosure form.”

“The sale of Mr. Bessent’s farms could be complicated by the U.S. trade war with China, which the treasury secretary has been actively trying to defuse,” the Times added.

BRK-B: $9.7 billion deal -- Oxychem deal.

Student debt: link to WSJ.  

Intel / AMD: may require a stand-alone blog.

Gen X: over the years; link to posts on the blog; link, 2018; google https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/search?q=Gen+X; link.

Paul Rand: net worth. Two links. September, 2022. Current: $1.5 to $1.7 million.

Christian Nationalism in the US: at this link, scroll to the box in the lower right-hand corner. 

Gas turbines: a shortage; a huge concern. Link here. The Labubus of climate change?  

Local: severe funding shortage in our school district, GCISD, Grapevine - Colleyville, Texas, north DFW; the enrollment began in 2019, or maybe better said, after 2020. 

And that's the bigger story: what happened? I doubt the population has decreased in Grapevine - Colleyville over the past few years. So, what happened. It would be interesting to see the breakdown of students by ethnicity. Was the school board tone deaf? Blame it on MAGA / Trump? Link here. Enrollment has declined by 1,500 students since fall of 2019; resulted in a loss of over $10 million in revenue. Two elementary schools fell below 60% of utilization; four fell below 75% of utilization. How many schools in this district? Eleven. Four of eleven below 75% utilization. Unsustainable. High schools in same district between 2019 and 2024? A slight decrease but not remarkable. Yet.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.

After Today's Proceedings In Washington, DC, Time For The Midnight Hour To Begin -- August 3, 2023

Locator: 45326ENNUI. 

That's not the best word, but for now ennui will have to do.

Tonight, after watching today's events in Washington, DC, I find myself thinking about the 60s and 70s. 

He, 77 years old. Did not serve. Medical deferment. Classifications.

For those who did serve, all gave some, some gave all.  

The baby boomers. Gen X. Gen Y. Gen Z. Gen Alpha. The music will be forgotten; Gen Alpha will hear the covers and not know.

Fortunate Son, CCR, link here.

Time to re-read Hunter S. Thompson. 

San Francisco in the middle sixties was a very special time and place to be a part of. Maybe it meant something. Maybe not, in the long run… but no explanation, no mix of words or music or memories can touch that sense of knowing that you were there and alive in that corner of time and the world. Whatever it meant.…

There was madness in any direction, at any hour. If not across the Bay, then up the Golden Gate or down 101 to Los Altos or La Honda.… You could strike sparks anywhere. There was a fantastic universal sense that whatever we were doing was right, that we were winning.…

And that, I think, was the handle—that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or military sense; we didn’t need that. Our energy would simply prevail. There was no point in fighting—on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave.…

So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.

Perhaps, the midnight hour has arrived an hour early tonight.

Inter-Generational Wealth Transfer -- October 19, 2024

Locator: 48603WEALTH.

Tag: inter-generational wealth transfer

As a reminder from an earlier post:

April 16, 2022: how Gallup "defines" the generations, or, link here (wiki, slightly different):

• generation Alpha (born 2010 - mid-2020s): 0 - 14 years of age. Grandsons' generation.
  
• generation Z (born 1997 - 2004): 20 - 27 years old. Granddaughters' generation.
  
• millennials (Y) (born 1981 - 1996): 28 - 43 years old. Younger daughter's generation.
  
• generation X (born 1965 - 1980): 44 - 59 years old. Older daughter's generation.
  
• baby boomers (born 1946 - 1964): 60 - 78 years old. My generation. RMDs.
  
• traditionalists (born before 1946): over 76 years old.

Now this, link here.

For once, the unluckiest generation seems to have benefited from exceptionally lucky timing.

From 2019 to 2022, home prices catapulted 41 percent, making it the best three-year period on record.

And millennials were perfectly positioned to maximize their benefit. Many had only recently entered the housing market; suddenly, the biggest financial bet of their lives had paid off with unprecedented speed. They’d leveraged their 5 or 15 percent down payment into a claim on record appreciation of their home’s entire value. 

A lot of folks are going to say this is "fake" wealth.

But there's more that no one ever seems to mention:  RMDs.

Generation X and the millennials are going to inherit "real" wealth via RMDs. From an earlier post:

October 7, 2024:

Inter-generational wealth transfer. Liz Ann Sonders. A recurrent theme on the blog.  Link here. Demographics. Wealth transfer.

• $84 trillion
• over next twenty years
• largest share, $30 trillion to Gen X

 

Xennials

Xennial: how did I miss this one?

• wikipedia;
• the micro-demographic born during release of original Star Wars trilogy, 1977 - 1983;
  
• USA Today, December 20, 2018, how to tell;
• at 33 years old, was approaching middle age, 
• this explains everything; our two daughters, born 1979 and 1983; 

From USA Today linked above:

• some people don't feel a connection to either age group;
• Xennials: those folks born on the cusp of when Gen X-ers and Millennials meet;
• they experienced world events, especially technology, in unique ways particular to their age;

Reminder, from Pew Research:

• Generation X: those born between 1965 and 1980
• Millennials: those born between 1981 and 1996
• Xennials: those born between 1977 and 1983 (others suggest, 1979 - 1983)

Comment from the linked article:

"You have a childhood, youth and adolescence free of having to worry about social media posts and mobile phones. 

It was a time when we had to organize to catch up with our friends on the weekends using the landline, and actually pick a time and a place and turn up there."

iGeneration: Generation Z: the zoomers:

• 1995 - 2012
• follows the Millennial generation
• precedes Generation Alpha
• children of Generation X; some are children of millennials;

Generation Alpha:

• Sophia was born 2014, so Generation Alpha;
• first generation to be born entirely in the 21st century;
• most are children of the millennials;
• defining event: the pandemic. Period. Dot.

Anything Worth Having, Must Have Some Value -- September 22, 2022

When interest rates were zero percent, that suggested to me money had no value. It was free. Things that are free, by definition, don't have value.

Interest rates of three percent seem about right when things are moving along slowly but in a good direction.

In the current environment five percent interest rates are absolutely in line with the value of money. 

Older gen Z'ers, millennials, and younger gen x'ers are over-reacting to "the Fed."

April 16, 2022: how Gallup "defines" the generations:

• generation Z (born 1997 - 2004): 18 - 25 years old
• millennials (born 1981 - 1996): 26 - 41 years old
• generation X (born 1965 - 1980): 42 - 57 years old
• baby boomers (born 1946 - 1964): 58 - 76 years old
• traditionalists (born before 1946): over 76 years old

With regard to the economy, the last person to whom I would listen is Rand Paul. Perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps he's a genius when it comes to the US economy. So, let me re-state that: with regard to personal investing, the last person to whom I would listen is Rand Paul.

Link here for current data. Link here for 2018 data.

How in the world did his net worth go from $800K to $400K over ten years. I must be mis-reading something or not getting the full story. Maybe he holds gold bars and values it at $0.

I have trouble getting upset with the US government sending a few thousand dollars (or even many thousand dollars) to families earning less than $25,000 / year (or even $50,000 / year) when Jamie Dimon earned $85 million in one year, in 2021. Jamie Dimon's net worth: $1.4 billion.

John Kerry, net worth:

• $103 million in 2013;
• $250 million in 2021;

Teresa Heinz Kerry: $1.2 billion.

One Year Ago: 100% Probability Of A Recession Within Twelve Months -- Bloomberg -- October 21, 2023

Locator: 45781ECON. 

The Fed: to move from 3% to 2% inflation, the Fed will kill the housing sector, the auto industry and renewable energy.  

JPow's memoirs title: Doing It My Way: The Operation Was A Success But The Patient Died.

Mester's memoirs title: No Regrets: How We Stopped Renewable Energy.

***********************
The Economy

One year ago, Bloomberg Economics predicted with a 100% probability a recession within 12 months.

100% probability.  

100% probability.  

So, what happened?

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The Blog

The area under the curve:

This, the area under the chart, without a doubt, the largest ever in the history of mankind.

My favorite chart.

Link here.

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Transfer of Wealth -- Already in Play

Now, let's add another data point: the greatest wealth transfer in the history of mankind. Link here.

My parents' generation transferred to me and my generation: $16 trillion.

My generation will transfer to the next two generations, our children, Gen X and Gen Y: $53 trillion.

First off all, I can't get my mind around one trillion dollars, much less $15 trillion, much less $60 trillion.

This transfer has only just begun.

My generation, the baby boomers: 1946 - 1964.

Today: ages 77 years of age - 59 years of age.

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RMDs

Baby boomers: first generation with tax-deferred (and tax-exempt) IRAs.

IRS changed the rules and now inherited tax-deferred IRAs must be exhausted in ten years.

The phenomenon of RMDs from the baby boomers has also just begun.

Age 73: must begin to take RMDs from IRAs.

Human nature: most folks who have sizeable IRAs and understand investing will try to wait as long as they can to start taking their RMDs each year. So, now, we're coming to the end of the year, and the holidays are coming. RMDs for 2023 start to hit their stride now.

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Housing

Baby boomers: big families. Common for folks like me to have four, five, or six siblings. But, Gens X, Y, and Z will have youngsters with zero or one sibling and that's it. 

Much less money being spent on housing (high interest rates, also, of course, but less money on housing translates into more money in non-housing retail sector.

Link here. 

***********************
Transportation

Due to high cost of automobiles, shortage of vehicles, etc., folks spending a lot less on autos. That leaves a lot more money for non-auto retail sales.

Excluding autos, sales were up 0.6%, also well ahead of the forecast for just 0.2%. The so-called control group, which strips out items such as auto dealers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores and is used for the department’s GDP calculation, rose 0.6% as well.

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Disposable Income

In the US, averages $50,000 per capita. Previously reported. Link provided by a reader, thank you.

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Bottom Line

From the linked CNBC article:

 “The U.S. consumer cannot stop spending,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.

“All three retail sales reports for Q3 were above estimates, which puts us on track for a strong GDP number later this month. It also gives the Fed zero reason to loosen policy, which keeps the 10-year Treasury yield pushing toward 5%.”

Sales gains were broad-based on the month, with the biggest increase coming at miscellaneous store retailers, which saw an increase of 3%.

Online sales rose 1.1% while motor vehicle parts and dealers saw a 1% increase and food services and drinking places grew by 0.9%, good for a yearly increase of 9.2%, which led all categories.

There were only a few categories that showed a decline; electronics and appliances stores as well as clothing retailers both saw decreases of 0.8% on the month.

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GDPNow

Link here.

Estimates for 3Q23 coming in at 5.4%.

Retail Sales Rose Almost 4x That Forecast In September -- October 17, 2023

Locator: 45800ECON. 

Big winners? Banks, today, are reporting huge earnings on interest payments for the third quarter, July - September, 2023, off strong retail sales. Investors worried the Fed will not simply be "higher for longer, but "much higher for longer." Link to WSJ.

Link here.

Let's review some charts.

The area under the curve:

This, the area under the chart, without a doubt, the largest ever in the history of mankind.

My favorite chart.

Link here.

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Transfer of Wealth -- Already in Play

Now, let's add another data point: the greatest wealth transfer in the history of mankind. Link here.

My parents' generation transferred to me and my generation: $16 trillion.

My generation will transfer to the next two generations, our children, Gen X and Gen Y: $53 trillion.

First off all, I can't get my mind around one trillion dollars, much less $15 trillion, much less $60 trillion.

This transfer has only just begun.

My generation, the baby boomers: 1946 - 1964.

Today: ages 77 years of age - 59 years of age.

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RMDs

Baby boomers: first generation with tax-deferred (and tax-exempt) IRAs.

IRS changed the rules and now inherited tax-deferred IRAs must be exhausted in ten years.

The phenomenon of RMDs from the baby boomers has also just begun.

Age 73: must begin to take RMDs from IRAs.

Human nature: most folks who have sizeable IRAs and understand investing will try to wait as long as they can to start taking their RMDs each year. So, now, we're coming to the end of the year, and the holidays are coming. RMDs for 2023 start to hit their stride now.

***************************
Housing

Baby boomers: big families. Common for folks like me to have four, five, or six siblings. But, Gens X, Y, and Z will have youngsters with zero or one siblings, and that's it. 

Much less money being spent on housing (high interest rates, also, of course, but less money on housing translates into more money in non-housing retail sector.

Link here. 

***********************
Transportation

Due to high cost of automobiles, shortage of vehicles, etc., folks spending a lot less on autos. That leaves a lot more money for non-auto retail sales.

Excluding autos, sales were up 0.6%, also well ahead of the forecast for just 0.2%. The so-called control group, which strips out items such as auto dealers, gas stations, office supply stores, mobile homes and tobacco stores and is used for the department’s GDP calculation, rose 0.6% as well.

***********************
Disposable Income

In the US, averages $50,000 per capita. Previously reported. Link provided by a reader, thank you.

**********************
Bottom Line

From the linked CNBC article:

 “The U.S. consumer cannot stop spending,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.

“All three retail sales reports for Q3 were above estimates, which puts us on track for a strong GDP number later this month. It also gives the Fed zero reason to loosen policy, which keeps the 10-year Treasury yield pushing toward 5%.”

Sales gains were broad-based on the month, with the biggest increase coming at miscellaneous store retailers, which saw an increase of 3%. Online sales rose 1.1% while motor vehicle parts and dealers saw a 1% increase and food services and drinking places grew by 0.9%, good for a yearly increase of 9.2%, which led all categories. There were only a few categories that showed a decline; electronics and appliances stores as well as clothing retailers both saw decreases of 0.8% on the month.

*************************
GDPNow

Link here.

Estimates for 3Q23 coming in at 5.1%.

Next estimate will be released later today: released — rises again, now, 5.4%.

Intergenerational Wealth Transfer -- Update -- May 25, 2025

Locator: 48683WEALTH. 

July 12, 2025: link here. The numbers keep increasing. 

Members of the so-called forgotten generation -- Generation X — now aged 45 to 60 — stand to receive $1.4 trillion annually over the next decade, according to a new report from Cerulli Associates, as their baby boomer parents get older and die. Mostly just a paid advertisement for financial services disguised as a financial news story.

July 1, 2025: the important thing to note here: the amount of money to be passed to the next generations in the US has long been stated to be $84 trillion. Somewhere along the way that was updated to $124 trillion.

• Merrill Lynch impact: linked July 1, 2025; undated; will probably disappear over time.
• MarketPulse: linked July 1, 2025; dated June 28, 2025; will probably disappear over time.
• MarketPulse, Bezos: linked July 1, 2025; ; dated June 28, 2025; will probably disappear over time.
• Gloom and doom always around the corner: PowerLine, June 30, 2025; link here.

Updates

May 25, 2025: the data below has been posted before. But -- and this is much more important -- we are just entering the sixth industrial revolution. 

And with that, here's the update as of today, ChatGPT: $124 trillion will be passed down by 2048, primarily from Baby Boomers (99%) and the Silent Generation (1%) to their heirs. 

This unprecedented shift is reshaping financial planning. Most of this $148 trillion will go to women: wives and daughters and granddaughter and great-granddaughters. 

And folks are worried about the national debt? LOL. Democratic administrations will tax the heck out of this. First to be taxed: Roth IRAs. Next? For top earners, the end of social security as "they" know it. And finally,

Original Post

Inter-generational wealth transfer. Liz Ann Sonders. A recurrent theme on the blog.  Link here. Demographics. Wealth transfer.

• $84 trillion
• over next twenty years
• largest share, $30 trillion to Gen X

OFR MMFs (my favorite chart): link here.

From OpenGPT:

The United States is currently undergoing the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history, with an estimated $84 trillion expected to pass from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to their heirs by 2045. Notably, women are poised to inherit a significant portion of this wealth, marking a substantial shift in financial dynamics.

Several factors contribute to this trend:

• Longer Life Expectancy: Women tend to outlive men, resulting in many inheriting assets from spouses before passing them on to the next generation. 

• Changing Family Dynamics: Increased divorce rates and evolving family structures have led to more women independently managing and inheriting wealth.

• Educational and Professional Advances: Younger generations of women are attaining higher education levels and entering the workforce in greater numbers, enhancing their financial literacy and earning potential.

From Google:

Updates 

December 8, 2024: within hours after posting the orinal note, Carl posted this note on Bluesky:

Social media comments (aka nattering nabobs of negativity) suggest some / many folks don't realize this is already occurring and will continue to snowball. Less important: a single curve. More important: the sum of the three (four?) curves). A fifth curve will start by 2048.

Simple arithmetic: 46 + 15 + 39 = $100 trillion.

Note: most folks will fixate on the yellow line after 2040. But importantly, right now, the yellow line is around $750 billion, or rounding to $1 trillion. To put that in perspective, MMFs are holding about $7 trillion. MMFs become a "holding tank" while heirs decide what to do with their cash inheritance.

The yellow line in 2048, will consist of only six people (mostly Democrats):

• Keith Richards
• Nancy Pelosi
• Warren Buffett
• Cher
• George Soros
• Joe Biden

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The Book Page

Three books from Half-Price Books today; 20% off for Memorial Day.

From the jacket, God Save Texas:

GodSave Texas is a journey through the most controversial state in America. It is a red state, but the cities are blue and among the most diverse in the nation. Oil is still king, but Texas now leads California in technology exports. Low taxes and minimal regulation have produced extraordinary growth, but also striking income disparities. Texas looks a lot like the America that Donald Trump wants to create.

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The Lego Page 

Link here.

More Lego:

Demographics -- August 8, 2021

I like this graphic for a number of reasons, link here. Whether it's the MOST important is debatable, but it is something to consider. 

Left to right:

• gen z and younger
• millennial
• gen x
• boomer
• silent (and really becoming more silent every day)

WWDC -- June 10, 2013.

Locator: 10010APPLE. 

3:14: apparently no "one more thing." Later, I heard Apple will not use Google for search, but Bing (MSFT).

2:35: off to pick up the granddaughters at school -- I will miss "the one more thing" --

2:26: demo of iOS 7 -- 

2:24: Craig back on stage; iOS 7, the biggest iOS change since the iPhone; typography; parallax tracks your motion; carries over across the system;

2:18: video of iOS 7; Jony Ive narrates; translucency; responds to movement; standing ovation; folks are really, really impressed; so many features I was not even aware of -- how important the features were to the developers.

2:18: iOS 7 introduced today; biggest change in iOS since the iPhone was introduced;

2:13: iOS -- huge audience excitement; Apple iOS #1; iPhone users use their smartphones much more than the other phones; same with tablets; important for advertisers to know; iPad and iPhone -- where most mobile shopping is done; customer satisfaction #1 -- 9 consecutive times; first time that has ever been done; IOS satisfaction "off the charts" -- at 97%; "very satisfied" -- 73% (25 points better than Android); only 53% for Windows Phone; more than a third of Android users are using a 2010 version; iOS -- 93% using most recent version; 

2:07: iWork in iCloud -- demo. Will make my life easier when blogging; can do spreadsheets inside the browser; don't need Excel;

2:04: iCloud -- 300 million iCloud accounts; FaceBook took five years to reach this number; fastest growing cloud service; can send 8 billion e-mail notifications (more than NSA can track?); iWork for iCloud; create documents in a browser (what I've always wanted). [Later, Apple does not provide numbers but it is estimated that there are now "billions" of iCloud accounts. -- November 8, 2025.]

1:56: Mac Pro: being worked on -- for creative folks -- desktop; revolutionary; "can't innovate any more? my ass." This is going to blow the socks off folks. In the shape of the cylinder. New INTC chip. Internal storage based on flash; 2.5x faster than any previous flash; 10x faster than any fastest hard drive; Thunderbolt 2; backwards compatible with Thunderbolt 1; first Mac ever to have dual workstation GPUs as standard; supports 4K display; up to three 4K displays; wow, about a third the size of the previous desktop; 1/8th volume; the future of the Pro desktop; later this year; designed in California; assembled in the USA;

1:54: new AirPort Extreme; new MacBook Air; twice the storage, same price; longer battery life; ships today;

1:51: MacBook Air -- updated an entire new line -- all-day battery life -- new 4th gen core -- INTC -- 11-inch, 5 hours to 9 hours; 13-inch, 9 hours to 12 hours of battery life;

1:50: Bottom line -- Mavericks now puts all this stuff on all platforms, including the Mac, not just the tablet or the iPhone

1:46: Demo; yes, I will be buying a new, large Apple monitor/display.

1:44: iBooks being brought to the Mac. [Later: Apple "moved" the iBook to the Mac when it discontinued the iBook line and replaced it with the new Intel-based MacBook in May 2006, as part of the company's broader transition from PowerPC to Intel processors. The iBook's successor was the MacBook, which was released to complete the transition of Apple's entire laptop lineup to Intel chips.]

1:43: Maps -- set up route on Mac; one click to your iPhone with turn-by-turn directions

1:42: Calendar -- adds location, travel time, and weather

1:41: Notifications -- pops up on desktop without having to go to the application; can reply directly from the desktop notification without having to go to application; 

1:39: iCloud Keychain -- 

1:30: Back to OSX Mavericks -- battery life innovation

• Coalescing: CPU activity: power optimization; 72% less CPU activity
• Compressed memory:1.5x faster than Mountain Lion
• Safari: private browsing; block 3rd-party -- innovations in the past by Safari; now new innovations; can move from article to article without clicking; improvements over Chrome, Firefox; uses one-third the power that Firefox uses -- so if you want to extend battery life between charging using Safari, not Firefox; searching through messages, super-fast; "glassy-smooth"; power usage: can't be articulated -- need to see the demo;

1:25: Demo -- it's incredible to be watching this live, not having to wait for CNBC to give me an update; the technology is incredible; somehow, I'm getting the feeling this WWDC may be much "bigger" than folks imagined, if this is where they are only 20 minutes into the conference

1:22: OSX Mavericks --

• Finder Tabs: wow, tabs look just like iTunes; can take full screen
• Tags: when you save a document, you can tag it and will be easily found in Finder
• Multiple Displays: menus across multiple displays; summon your dock on multiple displays (more on this later, if I remember) -- this is really, really incredible.

1:21: delayed due to a dwindling supply of cats; this lion-thing in a different direction: Sea Lion? Maybe not. A set of names for the next 10 years: will be named with California theme -- OSX Mavericks -- (this may have been an error: Mavericks can be a "generic" name, but unlike Mountain Lion, Panther, etc., it is not a word "understood" worldwide -- in addition, it is an "inside joke," a familiar location to northern Californians, but not cache for the rest of us)

1:20: 28 million copies of Mountain Lion, IOS X latest version.  > 30% of uses have more recent version of IOS X; Windows struggling to get to 5%.

1:18: the Mac: 72 million installed base; #1 desktop in the US; MacBook is the #1 notebook in the US; average annual growth rate of Mac, 15% vs 3% for the PC; 5-yr total growth, 100% vs 18% for the PC

1:12: "anki" -- robotics and artificial intelligence company; launching their company on stage at the WWDC. CEO of "anki": robotics from labs at Carnegie Mellon; five years of work; this is incredible; programmed racing cars; gaming to a whole new level;

1:10: Update on the App Store. 575 million credit card accounts at the Apple App Store; more than any other internet "store." Click and buy.

1:09: Of course the video is incredible -- The Berlin (Germany) Apple Store. Tim is back.

1:04: Tim Cook is on stage.

1:02: WWDC kicks off with video presentation.

Streaming here. Only on Safari. Starts about 1:00 pm eastern time, and could last as along as two hours.

Live blogging has begun here. 

Beginning To Understand Tim Cook's / Apple's Strategic Path -- CPU-GPU-NPU-DSP -- June 10, 2024

Locator: 47993TECH.

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors.

Note: in all my notes, I miss facts, factoids, memes and opinions -- it is often hard to separate one from others; and, I seldom point out facts vs opinions. In other words, everything I post needs to be fact-checked. 

 Chips, semiconductor: link here.

• Home page for tech: link here.
• The cloud: link here.  
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
• Spatial computing: link here.
• Generative AI: link here. 
• Apple Silicon: link here.
• tech: chip count updates.
• Supercomputers: link here.
• Data centers: link here. 
• System on a chip (SOC): link here.

********************************

M4

M4 launch, May 20, 2024 -- today we'll see.

Tom's Hardware, May 14, 2024 -- today we'll see. 

AppleWorld Today, December 28, 2023: gaming. 

Inverse, February 24, 2024: gaming.

****************************

Cores

Intel CPUs with P cores and E cores, March 24, 2023. A forum. Nice background for early discussion. 

• One comment, from an individual who doesn't get it: 

E Cores are actually quite powerful by themselves. Even if the processors only had E Cores, they would still perform nicely and powerfully. Intel are adding up E Cores so that the total Power Usage and heat dispersion of said generations of CPUs are lowered down, while at the same time the number of Cores is high. If we had 24 P Cores instead of 8 P and 16 E Cores, the power draw and temperatures would increase dramatically, so the P cores would have to be downclocked in order that the processor outputs the same heat and intakes the same amount of electricity as in the scenario with 8 P Cores at a much higher frequency and 16 E Cores at a lower one. 

E Cores are quite powerful and give out the possibility for more cores with an overall lesser effect on power draw and heat dispersion. If there were no E Cores and Intel wanted there to be P Cores only, they'd have to decrease the clocks of the P Cores significantly in order to obtain the same specifications (in regards to TDP and temperature) they would with the addition of E Cores (differing from P Cores in the margins they leave out for heat and power consumption by running at lower speeds and harboring a pertinent architecture).

Intel, Alder Lake, wiki.

Code names, Intel Core processors. 

• Raptor Lake = 13th gen Core, Alder Lake = 12th gen Core, Rocket Lake = 11th gen Core, Comet Lake = 10th gen Core.

Comment: the above links helped me understand what Apple / Tim Cook are doing with regard to M4. 

Apple M-series, wiki:

• M1: revolutionary.
• M2; evolutionary.
• M3: evolutionary.
• M4: revolutionary.

Apple M4 is an ARM-based system on a chip (SoC) designed by Apple Inc., part of the Apple silicon series, including a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), a neural processing unit (NPU), and a digital signal processor (DSP). 

It was introduced in May 2024 for the iPad Pro (M4), and is the fourth generation of the M series Apple Silicon architecture, succeeding the Apple M3. 

According to Apple, the M4 SoC's Neural Engine is capable of 38 trillion operations per second, "which is 60x faster than Apple’s first Neural Engine in the A11 Bionic chip." 

The SoC is built upon a 3-nanometer process, and features 3 or 4 performance cores, 6 efficiency cores, and 10 graphics processing cores. [Note: I am unaware of any other "brand-name/big-name building 3-nanometer chips."]

The M4 is the world's fastest consumer SoC in single core performance according to the Geekbench benchmarking suite, (beating Apple's M3 Max and Intel's Core i9 desktop CPUs), and rivals Apple's M3 Pro desktop CPU in multi-core performance. [Note: emphasis on CPU -- so yesterday.]

It is the first iPad SoC to support AV1 decode, and has a new display controller that Apple claims is necessary to support the iPad Pro (7th generation)'s Tandem OLED display. 

It is rumored the Apple M4 is Apple's first SoC which uses the ARMv9 architecture for its CPU cores, ARMv9.4 to be specific.

It also could support Arm's SME2 extension, which was announced in 2022 and is a superset of SME and SVE2, to accelerate matrix operations. This is likely the cause of the majority of the estimated 7.6% Instructions Per Cycle (IPC) uplift from M3 Max, which would only be 3.0% without the new matrix extensions.

Posted previously, if Apple's market cap it $3 trillion, one can look at this like this:

• hardware: $1 trillion; predominantly iPhone; Apple is struggling how to balance laptop vs tablet; desktop targets "Hollywood" as well as US government intel agencies;
• generally, analysts -- publicly -- only focus on iPhones;
• services: $1 trillion; ecosystem unparalleled; in fact, the "heat sheet" shows only one consumer electronic, Apple
• Apple Silicon: chip company; partnered / joined at the hip with TSM
• playing the long game
• seems to have accelerated push from M1 to M4
• partnership with Google, OpenAI 

This may be a good time to look at Open AI again.

***********************************

Data Centers

This is incredibly important. Do this. Google: apple acdc.

See the first hit. It's not often that a "generic" search or "specific" search like apple acdc would deliver this hit. This is incredible remarkable.

***********************************

Challenge

Incredibly difficult for Tim Cook to articulate all of this. Apple is playing the long game.

I think it's important to remember the history of Steve Jobs / Apple and Microsoft / Xbox. 

One link here. Additional links pending.

Some suggest Elon Musk is juggling too many balls: Tesla, X, SpaceX, the Boring Company, etc.

One could argue that Apple / Tim Cook is in that same bind:

• long game / short game
• research / marketing
• music / gaming
• sports / movies
• more partners / fewer partners

Advantage? Apple.

• the 3-nm M4 bridges all of Apple's interests and strategic plans.
  
• the 3-nm M4 has set the bar for the industry
• among everything else, what folks seem to want most in mobile environment: at least a full-day without re-charging
• remember years ago -- all that emphasis on wireless (NFC) charging? 
• that research continues, but Jobs / Cook / Apple went a different route while waiting for NFC charging to be a real deal

Still out there, the pop-up quiz for the day: the person, place or thing that is buying the most Nvidia blades. Hint: this person, place or thing has very deep pockets. In fact, "it" has deeper pockets than one can imagine.

Spaceholder.

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.