One Last Note -- And Then I'm Heading For Bed -- October 3, 2016

Regardless of what Saudi Arabia says it will do or won't do, folks need to remember that the oil industry is one of booms and busts.

The booms seem to last longer than busts.

Booms/busts can be global, regional, or local.

Booms and busts in the oil industry are unpredictable, much like atrial fibrillation, irregularly irregular.

Scanning through pages and pages of headlines (but not reading the stories) related to the oil sector, something seems to be going on in the oil industry right now suggesting that the downtown that began in the late summer of 2014, might be ending. (I did not say the price of oil would go over $50; I just said that there are signs that the current downturn might be ending.)

If there are hints that the downtown might be ending, one can count on Goldman Sachs to try to talk it "down."

The current global downturn is now more than two years old, and not many things in economics last more than two years. Yes, there are exceptions, like Japan's stagnant economy and the two lost decades of George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

To clarify because some will say this is obvious, as in "well, duh." This is the point: what happens next  with regard to the oil sector will happen regardless of what Saudi says or does. Saudi Arabia is not irrelevant but global "forces" are such that Saudi Arabia is in a "reactive posture" rather than a pro-active posture.

The other point: a year ago, folks felt "we" needed to see $60-oil to see things improve in the oil patch; there are indications that $50-oil for on-shore US operators is "just fine" depending on the trend. The interactive chart at this site might be relevant.

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First Official Photographs Of Future Soccer Star

Two photos are posted because I could not decide which I liked better. Sophia is in her soccer uniform; she has soccer practice three times a week. She is two years, three months old. She plays for the Tutor Time Tykes. I'm not exactly sure what position she plays, except to say, she is generally somewhere on the field.