Crude Oil -- Peak Demand, Peak Supply -- Which Comes First? -- Morgan Stanley Says Peak Supply -- Result: Significantly Higher Crude Oil Prices Sooner Than Later -- October 20, 2021

Generally, with regard to ZeroHedge, I can take it or leave it. But this particular article, linked here, sent to me by a reader, is a "keeper," and a must-read. I'm not going to cut / paste any excerpt. If interested, one will have to go to the link at ZeroHedge. I have archived it. If the link breaks or the article disappears let me know and I will forward you what I can. 

I read the article very, very quickly. I probably missed a lot and probably misread a lot but bottom line, Morgan Stanly suggests global demand for energy (and percent of crude oil's contribution) will grow more quickly than forecast and current production trends suggest, in Morgan Stanley's estimation, that production will not keep with up with demand.

Short soundbite: peak demand will occur before peak supply. 

Two comments with regard to the article.

First.

The big unknown is exactly of what Saudi Arabia is capable. To what degree can OPEC+ / Saudi Arabia change the equation. Perhaps I should do a poll on this but it's my feeling that readers are pretty much divided:

• half of my readers would say that Saudi Arabia is sandbagging us, purposely under-producing, to drive prices higher;
• the other half would argue that Saudi Arabia may indeed be challenged with greater production to meet increased demand.

Regardless of the correct answer, which may not be known for years / decades, it is the great unknown in the peak demand / peak supply equation. 

Second.

I read the article quickly and I may have missed it but, although I saw China (and Asia) mentioned, I did not see India mentioned. India always seems to be left out of these discussions. 

Bottom line: the tea leaves suggest --

• most conservatively: crude oil will stay in the current trading range through the end of the year;
• increasing number of analysis: suggestions that crude oil will trend toward $95 by mid-2020 if not by the end of this year (2021)
• some options traders are willing to put some money on $200 oil by the end of 2022.

Having said that, some analysts suggest crude oil could drop to $40, and maybe lower. 

Be that as it may, the linked ZeroHedge article is a keeper.