NASCAR today: 2:00 CT, Kansas. Second of three, group of eight. Standings here.
Holiday spending:
- first report: $1,000 / person spending this holiday season; "every" media source predicts huge spending season"; link here;
- Adobe forecasts record online holiday spending;
- emarketer, forecast:
- total US retail sales will rise 9.0% to $1.147 trillion
- brick-and-mortar retail: will surge 7.9% to $935.79 billion
- US retail commerce sales will climb a whopping 14.4% to $211.66 billion
- e-commerce to account for 18.4% of total retail sales
- forecast factors in ongoing strength (see my favorite graph below):
- ongoing strength in the consumer economy despite resurgence of Covid-19 (delta variant)
- low unemployment
- rising wages
- booming stock market
- government stimulus
- Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday? see link
- retailers' biggest winners:
- Amazon
- Walmart
- Target
- Best Buy
Amazon:
- high gasoline prices won't affect overall spending
- having said that, Amazon will benefit if high gasoline prices impact spending at all
- three large mailings = Amazon Prime membership
- USPS large flat box: $22.65; I believe USPS is less expensive than UPS and much, much less expensive than FedEx
- USPS: three days shipping and recently announced that agency purposely extending delivery times to save money
- Amazon: one-day delivery is the norm; same day common;
- Amazon Prime: Prime Video; Amazon music;
Mastercard: sees holiday spending reaching record on 7.4% growth; link here;
Anecdote:
- my wife was looking for a specific $2-item at brick-and-mortar; unable to find it at three different stores
- went on Amazon; found product for $20; aghast until she read the small print: box of ten
- my wife, who was only going to spend $2 for a single item, went ahead and bought the 10-pack
- why does Amazon (generally) not run out of stuff?
- on the flip side -- do folks now understand why there are shortages? Anecdote: my wife just took ten items off the shelf when all she was looking for was one -- and this is happening hundreds of thousands of times per day around the country.
- we used to buy "just in time"; now, we buy "just in case."
Anecdote:
- my wife went with her friend yesterday; early Christmas and Hanukkah shopping
- listening to all the reports that there will be a shortage "of things" by end of November
- retailers doing a great job to get folks out early
Tea leaves:
- we're going to see huge retail sales well before Thanksgiving this year
- as we near Thanksgiving the stories on evening news will accelerate, scaring people into buying early to avoid shortages
My favorite graph: pending.
