April 8, 2017: something tells me the "bad, bad report" yesterday was somewhat of an anomaly: too many other data points do NOT validate the "jobs created" number. For example:
The number of employed Americans increased 472,000 to 153,000,000 in March, setting a second straight monthly record; and the number of unemployed persons dropped by 326,000 to 7.2 million.
Later, 7:30 a.m.: unemployment rate ticks down to 4.5%; lowest since May, 2007; from Fox Business News --That brought the nation’s unemployment rate down two-tenths of a point to 4.5 percent.
- bad, bad report
- jobs created: 98,000: look at the "magic numbers": 150,000 "new" jobs needed to avoid economic stagnation; not a good report for Trump by any means; will be interesting how he tweets to Congress to get moving
- unemployment rate drops because participation rate drops
- huge miss; forecast for 185,000
- labor participation, bad news, flat: 63%
- disappointing report; jobs created a huge miss; probably in construction jobs due to weather (talked about at length prior to announcement) but overall, analysts really missed this one
- not surprising: retail jobs going away
- question: will market see the unemployment rate, the lack of jobs creation, or the participation rate? Generally the market pays attention to the top line number -- the unemployment rate of 4.5% -- so what are futures doing immediately after the announcement: wow, futures plunged from flat/slightly up, now plummeting, dropping 58 points; WTI dropping back a bit; now back to $52
- wages: really, really bad; no wage inflation; wages up 2.7% year-over-year
- U6: coming in under 9% -- someone consider this the real unemployment rate; coming in under 9% is a very, very good sign
- employer-mandate on ObamaCare still in force: business owners not getting positive vibes from Congress; won't create jobs if healthcare costs remain high; too offset this uncertainty: robots, self-ordering kiosks;
- small business (where most jobs are created): a) ObamaCare is still a huge drag; b) Border Adjustment Tax a huge concern for small business; and, c) no Congressional movement on tax relief
- if Congress doesn't get this turned around, and soon, a lot of incumbents may find themselves out of work in late 2018
Dow futures: flat, after being as much as 140 points down immediately after US military action against Syria.
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Enterprise Products hikes quarterly distribution:
The partnership will now pay a quarterly cash distribution of 41.5 cents per unit or $1.66 per unit on an annualized basis. This is 1.2% higher than the previous distribution of 41 cents and 5.1% above the prior-year quarter distribution of 39.5 cents.
Jobs: WSJ forecasts a gain of 175,000 jobs; others, forecast 185,000 jobs; unemployment rate forecast to remain unchanged.The increased distribution is expected to be paid on May 8, 2017, to unitholders on record as of Apr 28, 2017. Based on closing price of $27.50 per unit on Apr 5, 2017, the stock has a dividend yield of 6%.
Ralph Lauren to close NY city flagship store and largest retail store (711 5th Avenue).