Friday, January 1, 2021

Themes -- 2021

For Investors

Link here.

Major Themes 

Energy, international:

  • The Mideast in a post-Trump world;
    • Tensions heating up?
    • Biden admits defeat in Afghanistan; Dunkirk evacuation; first US casualties since Feb 2020;
  • Mexico on the cusp
  • Venezuela: a friend in Washington? hits rock bottom (September, 2021; China eyes)
  • surging natural gas prices across Europe

Energy, national:

  • US, under Biden, rejoins the global push to pivot from "black" to "green"
  • Costa Azul

American agriculture:

  • Cold snap, France: ruined vineyards
  • Cold snap, Germany: took out grains like rapeseed (canola);
  • US drought;
  • Farmers to the world

Bubbles or good investments?

  • Housing
  • Bitcoin
  • EVs (Tesla, others)


  • "Long-haulers"; the fibromyalgia syndrome of the 2020's;
    • September 5, 2021: the story has disappeared;
  • football stadiums full, fall, 2021; no masks




  • in less than 24 hours, the Americans (and the rest of the world) forgot about Afghanistan


  • this may be an option for those who want to invest in leading edge tech but have no idea where to invest;

Automobile manufacturers:

  • pure play EVs may have advantage;
  • hybrid manufactures: legacy manufacturers who branch into EVs, and commit to EVs -- may have real disadvantage
    • incredibly difficult to read the tea leaves
    • ex: New York State governor signs bill to end selling of gas-using automobiles in her state as of 2035; no one knows this will happen, but how does GM, Ford plan for this?

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