Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Amazing: folks are talking about unemployment rates as low as 3.5% by the end of next year. No link, idle chatter.

Workforce participation: the share of the population between 25 and 54 ears old that has a job, 79%, touched the highest level since the recession ended in 2009.

Dirty little secret: there are more than a dozen Democrats in the US Senate that want the tax bill to pass; it would be interesting to see how this would play out if Mitch McConnell can't get the votes to pass this bill. No link, idle chatter.

Five main drivers of oil prices in 2018, Financial Times:

• the Forties pipeline system, the operator is Ineos (a one-time anomaly -- will have minimal effect)
• demand (well, duh)
• OPEC and Russia eye an exit strategy (okay)
• Venezuela (hardly; Canada can easily make up the difference; output from V. has declined to 1.8 million bopd from 2.5 million bopd at the start of 2016; not even a million bbls; it's the wrong "type" of oil, but even the Permian/Bakken could easily make up V.'s shortfall)
• non-OPEC supplies, like US shale output (another, duh)

OPEC raises demand forecast: world oil demand will grow by 1.53 million bopd in 2018. Data points:

• U.S oil production has recovered to about 9.7 million barrels a day after hitting a recent bottom of 8.5 million barrels a day in September 2016
• OPEC's total oil output fell by 133,000 barrels a day to 32.45 million barrels a day
• from an earlier post, August 6, 2017, OPEC July oil outputs hits high of 32.82 million bopd on Libya recover. OPEC is about 1 million bopd above ceiling.

Saudi Aramco lifts spending plans to $414 billion over next decade, from Reuters via Rigzone. producer has been expanding its businesses.

US fuels the world as shale boom powers record oil exports, from Bloomberg via Rigzone:

The world’s largest oil consumer exported more hydrocarbons than ever before in 2017 and shows no signs of slowing down.

You name it -- crude oil, gasoline, diesel, propane and even liquefied natural gas -- all were shipped abroad at a record pace. While the surge comes many years after the shale boom started, it can be traced straight back to the [Bakken revolution]. U.S. exports are poised to expand even further, as the fear of peak oil supply has all but vanished just as a new demand threat emerges in the form of electric vehicles.

Permian Basin refinery project doubles in capacity, from Rigzone:

The developer of a planned West Texas refinery has decided to increase crude oil processing capacity in the Permian Basin by one-third rather than one-sixth.

MMEX Resources Corp, which in March of this year unveiled plans to build a 50,000-barrel per day (bpd) refinery in Pecos County, Texas, on Nov. 17 broke ground on the facility’s 10,000-bpd crude distillation unit (CDU).

Moreover, the company has raised the capacity of its planned refinery – to be built on a 250-acre site northeast of Fort Stockton – to 100,000 bpd. The Permian Basin’s three existing refineries can process 300,000 bpd of crude oil, and MMEX plans to start the permitting process for its refinery early next year.

MMEX’s project will be one additional outlet for growing Permian crude oil production. In just the past week, companies such as Enterprise Products Partners L.P. and Phillips 66 and Enbridge have announced projects to add crude pipeline takeaway capacity from the region.  

Forties Pipeline: oil, gas firms could lose millions due to shutdown. Companies mentioned: EnQuest plc and Premier Oil plc. Others mentioned: BP, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips.

Active rigs:

$57.62→	12/13/2017	12/13/2016	12/13/2015	12/13/2014	12/13/2013
Active Rigs	51	40	65	181	190

RBN Energy: will a wave of Permian pipeline projects avert takeaway constraints?