Coffee.
We have an on-going subscription for coffee K-Cups through Amazon, which delivers a 100-count box every two months. Prior to delivery, Amazon sends an alert to allow us to modify shipment or discontinue it altogether.
a. Six months or so ago, the 100-count cost around $22.
b. I made a one-time cancellation of the shipment four months ago.
c. Two months ago, the 100-count cost around $29.
d. Today, I received a notification that the 100-count was back down to $22.
Oil.
First things first:
I'm really not sure what this means in the big scheme of things but the headline and the story certainly suggests Apple really is the three-trillion-pound gorilla in the room.
Headline: Meta (Zetabook) halts development of in-house AR and VR operating system as launch of Apple headset approaches. Link here.
Energy crisis: Asia and Japan as winter sets in. Link here. "Emergency order" from Japanese government for three regional utilities to produce more electricity due to tight power supply in the Tokyo region due to snow and frigid temperatures.
I guess it's winter and this was .... unexpected?
Jobless claims: a modest increase in jobless claims. Yawn.
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Moms With Eyes In The Back Of Their Heads
From a two-year-old's perspective:
Freeze: Bakken. Link here.
QCOM: links chip deal with Volvo, Honda, and Renault. Based on a number of data points, this seems to be a very, very big deal.
WTI: up 1.26%; up almost $1.00; trading at $78.81 which is about nineteen cents from $79. EOG breakeven at $30; covers dividend at $36. Just saying.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $78.81 | 1/6/2022 | 01/06/2021 | 01/06/2020 | 01/06/2019 | 01/06/2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 34 | 11 | 56 | 63 | 54 |
Thursday, January 6, 2022:
RBN Energy: 45Q tax credits to evolve to incentivize carbon-capture projects.
Capturing carbon dioxide and permanently storing it below ground is expected to be a critically important tool in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The oil and gas industry has been a leader in showing how CO2 –– albeit mostly CO2 that is produced from underground reservoirs, not captured from industrial facilities or power plants — can be used and sequestered via enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The catch is that capturing CO2 and using it for EOR or injecting it into deep wells for eternal storage doesn’t come cheap and so government incentives are required to justify investment in carbon-capture projects. Enter the 45Q tax credit. First made available for U.S. carbon-capture projects in 2008, it has been expanded considerably since then and could soon be expanded further, although its results to date are a mixed bag at best. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss key aspects of the tax credit, how it has changed over time, and what may be coming down the pipeline.
Updates
January 6, 2022: a reader who knows the "truck industry" as well as anyone and who writes me to expand on my notes as often as necessary, provided these thoughts regarding my notes below:
600 mile range for an electric truck will put it into a regional delivery range. 200 to 300 mile trip - 600-mile round trip and the unit comes back to the terminal.
600 miles is not enough range for long haul truckers who can drive 11 out of 24 hours.
At the posted limit it puts the 600 mile truck in a range of no reserve power in case of any type of delay or in extreme hot or cold weather which reduces the range.
Urban, close-haul pickup and delivery is the only real useful place for electric powered trucks. Great for use at container ports, delivery of gasoline, and other short, multiple daily trip loads.
Long haul is the last use of electric.
The big question still is where will all the power come from? To install a charging location, truck stop or terminal will take a huge amount of power. Are there any power plants being built to service this demand, 24 / 7 no matter what the weather?
There are supply chain disruptions now with plenty of blame flying around. Who will take the heat when the region you are in has no reliable delivery, especially in extreme weather.
Comment: great, great help for me -- that comment --- first of all, huge difference in my thinking -- "long haul" vs "medium haul" vs "short haul." I was completely wrong suggesting EV would be an answer for "long haul" but it looks like EV niche might be "medium haul" (ports, terminals, high density urban areas) and "short haul."
The big, big, big issue remains: the infrastructure. I concentrated on footprint of the recharging pads -- that is a very small issue compared to the underlying need for much more robust electric grid beginning with power stations.
Original Note
January 4, 2022: dam will break, summer of 2022 -- flood of new cars start hitting the market.
I made that comment yesterday, that by the summer of 2022 -- about six months from now, a flood of new cars will start hitting the market.
Now this in The WSJ today: automakers supercharge move into electric vehicles. No specific timeline but 2023 will start to see the many new EV entries, but the supply chain issues will resolve well before then for ICE vehicles, and we should see a huge flood of new vehicles this summer (2022).
The big three: GM, Ford, and Rivian. Timelines and updates.
Long-haul trucks:
If these long-haul trucks really get 600-mile range on single charge, the "big guys" are going to start plotting (probably already have) where to put the mega-electric truck stops.I don't know if other folks have noticed but truckers like to sleep also, and the truck stops are absolutely full overnight -- perfect for re-charging their vehicles.But the footprint will be interesting. Right now, a truck pulls in, refuels and in fifteen minutes leaves the refueling pump, and goes off to park.
With e-charging, these trucks will occupy the charging station all night, so instead of six pumps for a hundred trucks, they will need a hundred charging stations for a hundred trucks.
Derivative:
To make sure they get a charging station, truckers will pull off the road earlier in the evening to beat the crowd. This could really be a disaster for a trucker who can't find an available charging station; could lose up to one day in travel time.
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The Sports Page
Local high school posted photos of recent scrimmage with our granddaughter's soccer team. Link here.
The
Guyer high school posted 58 photos, almost all of which featured Guyer
athletes. Of the handful of photos of Grapevine High School athletes,
almost every one of them was of our granddaughter Olivia.
Locator: 33021EVs.
October 29, 2023: see this post. No more blogging about EVs. There will be exceptions.
August 8, 2023: as of today, I am no longer following EVs. I may update or blog about EVs occasionally, but this chapter in my blogging life is pretty much over. Tesla should be rolling out its Cyber Truck this month after years of anticipation.
Unmitigated disaster: tag.
Scorecard
July 20, 2026; won’t appeal US government from banning Chinese-made EV on grounds that Polestar represents a security risk. See WSJ.
November 7, 2025: Ford will likely discontinue producing EV pickups -- the F-150 lightning. Link here.
August 5, 2025: top ten EV auto manufacturers.
2024: world's ten largest EV manufacturers. To get on the list, need at least one-half million
Major Updates
July 20, 2026; won’t appeal US government from banning Chinese-made EV on grounds that Polestar represents a security risk. See WSJ.
2024: link here.
Major Developments
October 18, 2024: Barra says GM will make a profit on EVs this year (2024) and will phase out ICE vehicles by 2035.
March 18, 2024: Fisker to stop production; will seek cash infusion.
March 18, 2024: Rivian can use Tesla chargers.
March 11, 2024: Endurance EV in bankruptcy; process began in early 2023.
February 29, 2024: EV wrap. Arrival in bankruptcy; Fisker may soon be in bankruptcy.
February 27, 2024: Apple scraps plans for iCar (EV, autonomous driving): Ford, GM have already scaled back plans; Ford announced it is suspending deliveries of its F-150 Lightning.
January 5, 2024: Ford loses EV bragging rights to GM: link here. Best summary to date.
December 21, 2023: Mullen is up 75% today.
December 14, 2023: GM Cruise to cut 24% of employees; dismisses nine key leaders after safety review.
December 11, 2023: Ford to cut planned production of F-150 Lightnings in half for 2024.
December 11, 2023: Vietnam's VinFast, to build in North Carolina.
December 10, 2023: deep dive -- F-150 Lightning.
December 7, 2023: EVs: there, they said it, the fad is over. The big story: how will F, GM, Stellantis manage?
November 16, 2023: Renault IPO: the EV Ampere.
October 26, 2023: following the UAW strike, all three major, legacy, non-EV US auto manufactures will delay production of their EV programs. One has said so explicitly; the others will fall in line.
October 20, 2023: Mullen update. Hope springs eternal.
August 5, 2023: ELMS, Mullen, Canoo update. Trucks.
August 4, 2023: Fisker update, Nikola update, 2Q23.
July 31, 2023: reality sucks for Ford.
July 26, 2023: showing some life; a turnaround?
July 12, 2023: Lucid falls short.
July 5, 2023: Amazon-Rivian vans rolling out in Europe.
July 5, 2023: EV truck maker Nikola pulls plug on battery supplier Romeo.
July 2, 2023: Tesla deliveries reported.
June 23, 2023: link here. EV manufacturers voting with their batteries; partnering with Tesla; saying no to US government preference.
May 2, 2023: Daimler unveils freightliner eM2, medium-duty truck. Battery: Detroit ePowertrain (?).
Tracking
EVs: in round numbers --
So, how many EVs did GM sell in 2023? Holy mackerel! Are you kidding me?
EV Manufacturers
Rivian: tracked here.
Updates
December 11, 2023: VinFast. Link here.
October 20, 2023: Mullen. Link here.
October 20, 2023: BMW. Link here.
June 29, 2023: Polestar adopts Tesla's supercharging system.
June 28, 2023: Volvo adopts Tesla's supercharging system.
June 27, 2023: Tesla -- seems to have become the "universal supercharger."
June 27, 2023: Lordstown declares bankruptcy.
June 26, 2023: huge WSJ article updating how bad this sector is.
June 12, 2023: NIO cuts expansion plans.
June 4, 2023: Ford-Tesla partner on charging stations across the US.
June 1, 2023: Ford CEO says EVs won't reach parity with ICEs until 2030.
May 11, 2023: Endurance, a TKO; Polestar on the ropes.
May 9, 2023: Nikola exits joint venture in Europe.
May 2, 2023: BYD overtakes VW as #1 car in China.
April 17, 2023: GM ditches CarPlay. Google the story for updates.
April 17, 2023: pricing -- Lucid, Porsche, Renault.
April 8, 2023: Ford raises prices on F-150 Lightning by 50%; three raises in three months; Tesla cuts prices five time in five months.
April 8, 2023: Toyota throws in the towel.
March 30, 2023: FF 91 Future debuts after months-long delay.
March 29, 2023: Polestar -- six links.
March 24, 2023: Ford announces T3 pickup; battery partner SK On.
March 8, 2023: EV update. Next twelve months critical for EV manufacturers.
February 24, 2023: Sono Motors calls it quits.
February 15, 2023: panelists on "Fast Money" are really, really negative on Ford. Tesla, #1, followed by GM. Ford shares have gone nowhere for 25 years -- the golden age of automobiles. Speaking of which, Ford extended that EV production shutdown due to battery fires.
January 5, 2023: link here -- Stellantis introduces a pickup EV prototype. Posted January 5, 2023.
January 5, 2023: link here -- PS5 on wheels. Honda, Sony partner: Afeela.
December 27, 2022: link here -- market / shares.
December 17, 2022: link here.
December 12, 2022: Rivian steps back from partnership with Mercedes-Benz.
December 7, 2022: worst-kept secret.
December 4, 2022: SUV of the year. An EV.
August 29, 2022: Honda, LG Energy to build first US EV battery factory somewhere in Ohio.
August 24, 2022: the UK-based Arrival.
August 15, 2022: this is an investor's bill -- the Biden Bill -- EVs, 2022 Biden Bill;
August 11, 2022: Rivian: a "zombie" company. Link here.
July 22, 2022: Amazon begins rollout of thousands of Rivian EVs. Also Stellantis Ram.
July 17, 2022: the giant car companies that want to dominate EV sales.
July 14, 2022: Kia! Hyundi and Kia rising to the top.
July 8, 2022: Argo AI lays off 5% of its workforce.
July 7, 2022: update Rivian and Genesis (Hyundai) EV 70.
July 4, 2022: Lordstown -- Foxconn -- Endurance pickup.
June 24, 2022: Polestar begins trading today. SPAC / Volvo.
June 17, 2022: new EV partnership added today -- Sony Honda Mobility.
June 8, 2022: Phoenix Motor drops 39% on first day of trading.
June 7, 2022: add the Polestar SUV to the list of EVs.
May 30, 2022: GMC's EV Hummer, starting at $108,700. Folks aren't buying it to save money on gasoline.
May 28, 2022: delivered -- first F-150 Lightning; it was a Platinum edition; $100K after all priced in.
May 22, 2022: announced -- Hyundai, Georgia, USA.
May 7, 2022: announced -- Saudi Arabia makes $6 billion investment in Lucid. Will also invest $32 billion in mining the desert for rare earth metals.
April 30, 2022: both F (Ford) and AMZN (Amazon) took huge paper losses on Rivian in their 1Q22 earnings. Ford shares, 1Q22, dropped from $25 to $14. How bad was it?
April 13, 2022: Louisville, KY
April 4, 2022: Germany automobile manufacturing work stoppage due to Putin's War.
March 28, 2022; Nvidia -- huge in autonomous driving.
March 3, 2022: GM sells its stake in Lordstown.
March 3, 2022: Hyundai, Foxconn, and Luxshare Precision preparing to team up with Apple's iCar.
March 2, 2022: with invasion of Ukraine by Russia, both Rivian and Lucid shares are tanking.
September, 2021: Ford, EV battery manufacturing plant, Hardin County, $6 billion.
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Scorecards
Scorecard, January 5, 2021.
Scorecard, November 22, 2021.
Apple, Foxconn, November 19, 2021.
Scorecard, November 18, 2021.
January 5, 2022.
January 4, 2022: dam will break, summer of 2022 -- flood of new cars start hitting the market.
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Scorecards
Scorecard addition, October 20, 2023: BMW. Link here.
Scorecard addition, August 22, 2023: Vinfast, VFS, Vietnam. Link here.
Scorecard addition, August 5, 2023: Canoo (GOEV). Should have been added a long time ago. See update here.
Scorecard addition, March 24, 2023: Ford T3 pickup to begin production, 2026; battery partner SK On.
Scorecard addition, June 17, 2022: new EV partnership added today -- Sony Honda Mobility.
Scorecard addition, May 28, 2020: Electric Last Mile Solutions, Inc. ELMS.
Scorecard addition, April 30, 2022: Atlis.
Scorecard addition, April 4, 2022: Volvo Polestar 2.
Scorecard additions, January 5, 2021, link here -- Amazon partners with Stellantis; separate story, new battery manufacturer, Our Next Energy (ONE).
Scorecard changed, November 22, 2021.
EV scorecard just a few days ago, link here:
- Rivian -- Amazon -- Ford -- GlobalFoundries
- Lordstown -- Apple -- GM -- silicon M1 chip (GM currently depends on seven chip manufacturers)
- Tesla -- chips (?)
Landscape changed:
- Rivian -- Amazon -- Ford out -- GlobalFoundries
- Lordstown -- Apple -- GM -- silicon M1 chip (GM currently depends on seven chip manufacturers)
- Tesla -- chips (?)
- Lucid - chips (?) -- Casa Grande, AZ
The scorecard, November 18, 2021:
Apple -- Foxconn, November 19, 2021.
- Lordstown, Ohio: factory already there, and it's not in California
- Lordstown Motors Corp: a provider of electric light-duty trucks focused on the commercial fleet market
- Hon Hai Technology Group (Foxconn): one of the largest electronics manufacturers in the world
- press release explains how this is all going to be done
- Lordstown Motors: wiki. Workforce? Locked and loaded to get this done.