Friday, March 18, 2022

Week 11: March 13, 2022 -- March 19, 2022

Top story of the week:

Top international non-energy story of the week:

Top international energy story of the week:

Top national non-energy story of the week:

Top national energy story of the week:

Top North Dakota non-energy story of the week:

Top North Dakota energy story of the week:

The Energy Chaser: The Williston Herald, Renée Jean;

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operations:

Operators:

Wells:

Fracking:

Natural gas:

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Notes From All Over -- March 18, 2022

The BIG STORY and the THEME this week in the energy sector has been: panic among the Washington (DC) incumbents. 

The price of gasoline has finally caught the attention of the Washington (DC) incumbents, both parties, and the governors of "selected" states.

First up: Maryland lifts the gasoline tax for 30 days. So, a gallon of gasoline will drop from $4.35 to $3.99. Three-ninety-nine sounds a lot better than anything that starts with a four-dollar handle.

But look at this: the Biden administration plans to resume plans for federal oil and gas development. Reported by Reuters. I don't even want to read the article; I didn't want to be disappointed. The headline was enough. Greta is arranging a support group meeting this week for herself, Bernie Sanders, Pocahontas, and Occasional Cortex.

Russia: has proposed tax relief for the oil industry.

Mexico: will halt plan to cut exports. Wow, huge story. Pemex will not meet export-cut target to boost domestic supply.

Market: wow, I'm in a great mood. That very small part of my overall portfolio that I manage all by myself -- is at an all-time high, but just barely. Once oil stocks catch up with the price of oil, and once AAPL gets back to $175, I will be able to retire. Again. 

Bad news: it's clear that no matter how the west wants to "spin" the valor of the Ukrainian people, Putin plans to take the whole country. 

Halliburton: suspends future business in Russia.

High oil prices have not spurred new drilling in the US oil patch. The sustained production is due to DUCs being completed. Link here. No acceleration of US shale rig counts despite oil price being over $100 / bbl. Labor, frack sand, and pipes are issues. And it's not the drilling that matters; it's the frack spreads.

Permian employment: the number of oil workers in the Permian has jumped by 20% in the past week.

Bullish: tech majors like AMZN and NVDA have "reclaimed" their 50-smas, a positive trend signal. ["50-sma" = 50-day simple moving average.]

Travel: US booking sites seeing strong demand for 2022 travel.

Porsche and Apple extend partnership.

And that’s just beginning.

Ringo Starr:30th Annual R'n R Induction Ceremony, 2015

One New Permit; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 18, 2022

Active rigs:

$104.70
3/18/202203/18/202103/18/202003/18/201903/18/2018
Active Rigs3716556558

One new permit, #38841:

  • Operator: Bowline Energy
  • Field: Briar Creek (Williams County)
  • Comments:
    • Bowline Energy has a permit for a Heen S well in SWSE 35-153-103, Williams County, Briar Creek, 
    • to be sited 270 FSL and 1525 FEL

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 31361, 1,848, Grayson Mill Operating,
  • 31466, 910, Grayson Mill Operating,
  • 38209, 1,867, Ovintiv Production

For Investors -- March 18, 2022

March 18, 2022, mid-day, from CNBC: 

March 18, 2022: Toyota, major chip supplier suspend production due to Fukushima earthquake. Toyota to suspend operations at more than fifty percent of facilities across Japan.

About Those 9,000 Permits -- March 18, 2022

9,000 permits: that's the number of permits the White House press secretary says the oil industry is sitting on, the number of permits that they "stockpiled" in anticipation of a Biden presidency. 

They say that is more than adequate if US shale would just drill those permits.

Today, it is announced that the number of active rigs in the US now total 766 rigs.

 

Back-of-the-envelope:

  • 9,000 / 766 = 12
  • those 766 rigs could each drill twelve wells and the 9,000 locations/permits would be exhausted
  • a rig can easily drill one well every two weeks
  • 12 x 2 = 24 weeks
    • March: 2
    • April: 4
    • May: 4
    • June: 4
    • July: 4
    • August: 4
    • September: 2
  • by mid-September, 2022, those 766 rigs could drill those 9,000 locations
    • just in time for the mid-term elections
    • am I missing something here?
  • something tells me that the White House press secretary is either unaware of how fast US shale can drill and / or is unable to do the math
    • or both

By the way, that 766-rig count was from March 16, 2022. Since then, the rig count in North Dakota has jumped two or three rigs based on NDIC's daily activity report.