EIA: US Shale Production Set For Big Jump In April -- March 15, 2022

Before we get to the Julianne Geiger article:

NOG: updated base dividendgrowth plan and announced additional shareholder returns; increases average quarterly dividend increases to 23%. Link here.

Now back to Julianne: I apologize. This is the third time I've linked this story since it came out. But I've decided to post it as a stand-alone story. If this turns out to be accurate, this will be quite amazing. Yes, the rig county has increased over the past few weeks, but not by much. 

From Julianne Geiger over at oilprice.com:

U.S. shale oil production in the seven most prolific shale basins are set for their biggest rise since March of 2020, according to new EIA data.

The Energy Information’s Drilling Productivity Report is estimating that the total production in the seven major U.S. shale basins will rise by 117,000 bpd next month, to 8.708 million bpd, according to the EIA’s latest version of the Drilling Productivity Report. The news comes as U.S. crude oil production finds itself in the spotlight as to the reasons they are not producing more.

Projections:

• February production: to rise by 117,000 bpd; to 8.708 million bpd;
• March production: to reach 8.591 million bpd, a significant increase in previous project; new projection based on February numbers;
• April:
• Permian: from 5.138 million bpd to 5.208 million bpd
• Eagle Ford: a 23,000 bpd rise to 1.146 million bpd
• Bakken: a 16,000 bpd increase

The linked article mentions DUCs in passing. Nothing new.

I can't talk to the other basins, but pad drilling and the halo effect in the Bakken is much, much more important than the DUC count. This has been a constant theme of the blog. If the EIA projections are correct, it will corroborate that observation, and pad drilling and halo effect (PDHE) could show up in Bakken's summer production numbers. We won't see final August data until October, 2022, so we have lots of time to bury this post. LOL.