Beautiful Day In North Texas; Spring Break; Not Much Blogging -- March 15, 2022

I won't be blogging much this week, and I'm not following the news much. Yesterday I was interested in only two stories: the PGA Champions Tournament. I talk about it elsewhere. Post-play interview with the champion, an Australian, corroborated my initial statements about Brandel Chamblee's insane remarks at end of first day of play. 

The other story: Chevron and Venezuela. Way too early to say what might happen. My hunch: both Maduro and the Biden administration will pull the rug out from under Chevron. But it could turn out to be one of the top five international energy stories this year. Memo to self: how much oil has Venezuela produced in the past; and, how much oil has the US, historically, imported from Venezuela:

• US imports:
• 2 million bopd, prior to the US shale revolution;
• after the US shale revolution, US imports from Venezuela declined significantly to 1 million bopd;
• after sanctions: 0 bopd imported from Venezuela
• as far as overall production goes,
• at best, Venezuela has produced 3.5 million bopd
• after the US shale revolution and prior to sanctions: around 2.5 million bopd
• after sanctions, around 1 million bopd to the non-US global market, much of it for local consumption;
• in other words: 
• with enough time but certainly not within six month, removing sanctions on Venezuela could "move the needle for CVX, but,
• will not do much for the global market; almost all of Venezuelan oil will flow to US
  

The EVs are in big trouble. What none of them needed to see was huge drop in the price of oil. More on that later, perhaps. TSLA is down another 0.67% today, now off another $6; and, trading at $761. The 52-week high was trending toward $1,250. 

WTI: someone noted that the highest trade in past few days was $139, very likely someone forced to buy to cover his/her short position. 

China: It seems like there was something else to talk about but I guess that's it. I still get a kick out of how China is playing this. Posted earlier and a bit more, now:

China: has certainly learned how to play the game. Shut down Shenzehn (equivalent to shutting down Silicon Valley, Detroit, and Houston). Push China into a recession. Cool things down. Price of oil falls.

Some weeks ago that was considered a playbook for the US: push the US into a recession, cool things down, etc.

Jay Powell just got some much needed help.

Beautiful weather in north Texas today. I may do a bit more blogging this morning, but this afternoon I wil be with Sophia.