Thursday, June 18, 2015

Great Jobs Report, If One Looks At Numbers Only -- Types Of Jobs Yet To Be Sorted Out; 80% Of Bakken Wells Coming Off List Today Not Completed -- June 17, 2015

The market must like this: first time claims hit 15-year low the day after Janet says no raise in interest rates ... yet. The market is up 160 points in early morning trading.

Reuters is reporting: US weekly jobless claims total 267,000 vs 275,000 estimate.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a tightening labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 for the week ended June 13.
Claims for the prior week were unrevised. It was the 15th straight week that claims held below 300,000, a threshold usually associated with a firming labor market.
I don't know if this plays into the "GDP Now" forecast. We'll see later. 
The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,000 to 276,750 last week.
Looks like very, very little risk of any recession this year. Although 2Q15 not looking to be great, it won't be negative.

Again, Bakken Wells Not Being Completed

The wells coming off the confidential list have been reported.

Again, look at the percent of wells coming off the confidential list that are drilled to depth but not completed -- 80%:
  • 26855, 1,655
  • 28335, drl/NC 
  • 28861, drl/NC
  • 29927, SI/NC 
  • 30065, drl/NC 
Supposedly the Director's Cut comes out tomorrow. I will really be surprised if the fracklog decreases. Anything's possible, but I just haven't seen the number of "producing wells completed" and "new wells with IPs" matching all the wells coming off the confidential list and not being completed. But we will soon see.

Active rigs in North Dakota unchanged from yesterday:

Active Rigs79189184212173

RBN EnergyBegin the Sabine—Delivering Gas to the Lower 48’s First LNG Export Terminal. Another good report by RBN Energy; archived.

Tioga Tribune reports that the new Tioga Clinic will open in August.

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