Thursday, June 18, 2015

“The world has come around to the realization that the U.S. shale barrel is the swing barrel.” -- June 18, 2015

This is a good example where the rhetoric may be a bigger deal than the facts. Here's the lede from Bloomberg/Rigzone:
Not content with the blow it’s dealt to U.S. oil drillers, Saudi Arabia is set to escalate the battle for market share by raising production to maximum levels.
The world’s largest oil exporter has already increased output to a 30-year high of 10.3 million barrels a day in a bid to check growth from nations including the U.S., Canada and Brazil. It will add even more to the global glut, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Citigroup Inc. predicts the kingdom will push toward its maximum daily capacity, which the bank estimates at about 11 million barrels, in the second half of 2015.
Saudi Arabia steered the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in November to protect its market share in the face of swelling U.S. crude output, rather than cut supplies to shore up prices as it did in the past.
Having abandoned the role of swing supplier -- adjusting production in line with demand -- the kingdom will maximize sales to increase pressure on producers outside the group, the banks said. “If you are Saudi Arabia and you’re looking at the new oil order we live in, you would go to full capacity,” Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs in New York, said by e-mail on June 15.
“The world has come around to the realization that the U.S. shale barrel is the swing barrel.” 
In my simple mind, this is my world view:
  • numbers coming out of Saudi Arabia can never be trusted;
  • Saudi's production fluctuates around 9.5 million barrels of oil;
  • at one time, pundits said Saudi's maximum production was 12 million bbls (now it's 11 million bbls);
  • this post and the graph at this post tell the story;
  •  a jump from 10.3 million to 11 million (assuming it's even "real") is hardly earth-shattering especially as off-shore projects are cancelled / delayed;
  • Saudi needs to increase production by a million bbls just to meet its own domestic demand -- which is increasing -- and to meet the requirements of the new refineries Saudi is building in-country; 
  • Saudi has huge new self-defense expenses and a shooting war to fund; but the biggie is ...
  • ... Saudi has just canceled its solar projects for desalination and will require more oil for the energy required for desalination
Goldman Sachs has been talking down oil for months, I think at one time anticipating $40 oil by this time, and hinting at possibilities of $20 oil.

So, maybe I'm just whistling past the graveyard, but I can't get too excited about an analyst telling me Saudi Arabia looks to increase production from 10.3 million bopd to 11 million bopd.

But as long as Saudi wants to give away their oil for $50 / bbl, that's fine with me.

Speaking of "fiction":

Pulp Fiction, Dance Scene
 
John Travolta says they were on the set for 13 hours, from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. for this scene. It also sounds like Travolta was the inspiration for the choreography. 

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