Friday Morning -- Jobless Numbers -- Higher For Longer -- Great News For Those In The MMFs -- Goldilocks Economy Continues -- National Donut Day -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48076B.

Updates

June 8, 2024: even Fox was blown away by the numbers, noting that 272,000 new jobs blew past even the highest estimates (258K). Over on social media (the comments), it sounds like a lot of folks have no clue.

Later, 2:03 p.m. CDT: from CNBC: wall of money could flow into the market in July, 2024, beginning of the 2nd half and beginning of the third quarter. LOL. 

Money on the sideline, $6 trillion in MMFs earning 5%, and analysts think folks will start moving this 5%-money into the 15%-S&P market. LOL. Anecdotally, my wife is absolutely terrified of the market and will never move "her cash" from MMFs into the stock market. Even when the MMFs were paying 0.01% she kept "her cash" in MMFs. This is the kind of money on the sideline that isn't going to be moved into the equity market. I'm even hearing from many money managers on CNBC who seem to be terrified of the market and won't move cash into the market. So you have that.

Later, 2:02 p.m. CDT, from The WSJ:

Later, 10:26 a.m. CDT: massive beat! Amazing how the best and the brightest continue to underestimate the strength of the US economy. Absolutely amazing.

Are they really this "dumb" -- and remember, they have all the data that "we" don't have -- or are they playing us for fools?

Not the "talking heads." They're just parroting what the economists and bankers are telling them. But even Steve Liesman got it way wrong: telling us to expect 190,000 new non-farm payroll jobs when the number came in trending toward 300,000. OMG!

Later, 9:55 a.m. CDT: when the Fed sees the market surge after disappointing jobless numbers this morning, numbers that suggest the Fed won't cut any time soon, this confirms my feelings that there's no way the Fed will risk cutting rates which would propel the market even higher, even faster. MMFs will maintain, and my wife will be thrilled, frivously spending her monthly gains from her MMF every month. 

Later, 9:46 a.m. CDT: Goldilocks, you say? 

Folks have already written me laughing at my "Goldilocks" economy. My reply: the Dow is up over 200 points; the S&P is up 15 points, and the NASDAQ is now joining that party -- has just turned green. AAPL? Up $1.35 and market cap back over $3.0 trillion. Yeah, it's a Goldilocks economy. [Having said that, I expect AAPL to sell off after the WWDC keynote speech.]

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

Original Post

Friday morning: these are the numbers we're expecting:

• 190,000
• 0.3% m/m
• 3.9% y/y
• 3.9%
• that's all you need to know

The actual numbers:

• 272,000 (much stronger than expected)
• 0.4% m/m (juiciest increase since beginning of the year)
• 4.1% (stronger than expected)
• 4.0% 

Markets: all turn negative -- futures -- 

• Dow:  -143
• S& P 500: -14
• NASDAQ: - 28

Treasuries turn up. 

Probability of a rate cut: gets less and less and less.

CNBC panelists now trying to spin this story -- how did payrolls jump so much more than expected?

• that 4% unemployment --  up from 3.9% reported last month
• "everybody" knows that unemployment isn't actually rising -- Joe Kernen
• remember: stagflation requires increasing unemployment and a slowing economy
• investors will take off their "party hats" today
• already looking forward to inflation data next week

BLS: link here. "Everyone" prefers U-3. The one on which I focus? U-1.

There are several stories not being reported.

The biggest story: immigration.

• "millions" of immigrants taking jobs, and yet businesses continue to add jobs way more than really smart economists estimated
• what would "we" be doing if it weren't for all these immigrants

As I've said many times, I would rather have a booming economy than a depression. But, again, that's just me. 

Cramer:

• service jobs and government jobs growing, but especially service jobs
• hospitality jobs; traveling is the big problem? All these rich retirees spending money on traveling?
• think of the health industry: all that elective surgery withheld during the Covid lock down -- now catching up
• Cramer and Carl Q have it figured out
• health care added 68,000 jobs. 
• David Faber acts confused -- says he doesn't know "where the economy is"