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Soft landing at risk. Tracked here.
For a week or so, in May, 2024, there was a concern that a "soft landing" was at risk.
After today's job numbers, that certainly doesn't look like the case. JPow can take a sign of relief. After the initial shock, "the market" agreed. This is a great economy and if one has a choice between a meaningless Fed cut and a booming economy, investors are going to take a booming economy any day of the week.
Friday morning: these are the numbers we're expecting:
- 190,000
- 0.3% m/m
- 3.9% y/y
- 3.9%
- that's all you need to know
The actual numbers:
- 272,000 (much stronger than expected)
- 0.4% m/m (juiciest increase since beginning of the year)
- 4.1% (stronger than expected)
- 4.0%
Markets: all turn negative -- futures --
- Dow: -143
- S& P 500: -14
- NASDAQ: - 28
Treasuries turn up.
Probability of a rate cut: gets less and less and less.
- that 4% unemployment -- up from 3.9% reported last month
- "everybody" knows that unemployment isn't actually rising -- Joe Kernen
- remember: stagflation requires increasing unemployment and a slowing economy
- investors will take off their "party hats" today
- already looking forward to inflation data next week
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