Locator: 48021ECON.
June 13, 2024: soft landing at risk? Deflation?
June 7, 2024: joblesssness -- huge surprise; analysts can't explain it. JPow can take a sign of relief.
June 3, 2024: GDPNow -- drops to 1.8 from previous 2.7.
June 2, 2024: Carl Q tweeted again.
Original Post
It's very, very subtle, but there's just enough information coming out now suggesting that the economy is slowing down -- perhaps significantly -- JPow has to be a bit concerned.
- The next data point is this next Friday, the unemployment report. U3 is at 3.9. A lot of Wall Street analysts are suggesting if Friday's unemployment number has a "4-handle," it's time for the Fed to take note. Friday: 6, 2024, the May, 2024, data.
- May, 2024, unemployment data -- three possibilities: no change, up, down. My bet:
- no change (stays at 3.9): 40% chance / likelihood
- 4-handle: 30% chance / likelihood
- 3.7: 20% ditto
- 3.8: 10% ditto
Pending house sales, April, 2024.
- analysts estimate: down 0.7%.
- actual: down 7.7%.
- holy mackerel.
New automobile glut? Link here. New car prices are going to have to start coming down. The MRSP won't drop, but the actual price paid / financing will have to come down.
A dropping GDP and the following graph should be very, very concerning, link here:
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On The Other Hand
Air travel in the US surging; globally will finally beat 2019 data.
US gasoline demand starting to surge.
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