Let's Talk EVs -- July 6, 2023

Locator: 45909AUTOS.    

Updates

EVs update.

Tesla: June sales, deliveries, China. Link here.

****************************************
EVs Forecast

These were forecast by the company back in 2022:

• 2023:
• Tesla: 1.1 million EVs
• F: 500,000 EVs -- original estimate
  
• run rate
• F-150 Lightning: 150,000 annual run rate
• on track to triple production y/y
• sold 3,600 through February, 2023
• list price: $52K to $97K
  
• Mustang Mach-E: 210,000 annual run rate

*****************************
Original Post 

Link here.

See this post for more detail and data for other auto makers, 1Q23 and 2Q23.

For GM, 2Q23: a horrendous report for EVs.

From the linked article, spend some time parsing these notes:

Comments, regarding GM EVs:

• SALES:
• 1H23: 36,3000
• 1Q23: 15,652
• 2Q23: 20,648
• PRODUCTION:
• company's forecast:
  
• 1H23: 50,000
• 2H23: 100,000
• sales "lag" production due to logistics and inventory on dealer lots;
• in other words, we have sales data, but not production data;
• so, we don't know yet if GM hit production targets
• but if they produced 50,000 and sold 36,300 ....
• EVs account for just 2.8% of company's total sales
• most concerning: 
• the vast majority of GM's EV sales in 1H23: the to-be-later-this-year-discontinued Chevrolet Bolt 
• Hummer sales? Not provided in this report, see below:
  

1Q23, link here:

 2Q23, link here:

******************************
My Takeaways Re: Auto Manufacturers

Comments (pertain to US, only):

• transition from "legacy" ICE to EV is going to be very, very, very expensive;
• we will very likely see change in leadership positions at some legacy auto makers as shareholders become more frustrated;
• there are three major groups of auto manufacturers
• pure play EVs from the very beginning, e.g.: Tesla, Rivian, Lordstown
• legacy auto makers transitioning to EVs, e.g.: Ford, GM, Stellantis
• niche, luxury automakers, doing what they want, e.g.: Rolls-Royce, maybe Porsche in this group

Among the second group, legacy auto makers transitioning to EVs (Ford, GM, Toyota), there are three sub-groups:

• CEO not sold on EVs, yet, e.g.: Toyota
• CEO reluctantly moving forward, e.g.: GM
• CEO going all in, e.g.: Ford

The second group (Ford, GM, Toyota):

• will cover costs to ramp up EVs by inflating prices of ICE vehicles (already occurring)
• GM will lose money hand-over-fist on ramping EVs, we won't know how bad it is; GM won't report
• Ford will also lose money hand-over-fist ramping EVs, but F will break out the details

The second group (Ford, GM, Stellantis):

• will give lip service to affordable EVs
• they can't make money on "Bolt-like" EVs
• they will gravitate to luxury EV brands
• consumers will "see" entry level EVs starting at $50,000 whether or not that's accurate
• tax incentives don't matter to most car buyers
• tax incentives favor the wealthy who would buy/not buy regardless of tax incentives
  

The second group (Toyota)

• hybrids (e.g., Prius): fake EVs; will be nothing more than a small niche
• will reluctantly move to EVs, mostly to meet California mandates -- otherwise they can't operate in that state

First movers, autos: Tesla

• other than Chinese no-names, Tesla could be "last-man" standing

EV niche:

• medium-haul trucks / urban delivery vans / urban fleet  >>> long-haul trucks >>>> luxury sedans / SUVs >>>>> non-luxury SUVs EVs >>> pick-up trucks >>> muscle cars
• best niche for EV trucks and vans
• medium haul
• east coast / west coast ports to neighboring warehouses / fulfillment centers
• urban / last mile delivery
  

India:

• my enthusiasm for India and four-wheel EVs has waned

US recession / EU recession:

• will further dampen enthusiasm for EVs