Jobs Report -- ADP -- July 6, 2023

Locator: 45906ECON. 

Comments:

• headline not big enough
• US economy on fire
• number of new jobs surge
• double what "analysts" forecast

Fact-check:

• "more than double"
• accurate, but understates how big the miss really was
• expectation: 220,000
• 2 x 220,000 = 440,000
• actual:
• 497,000
• 13% more than double expectations
• wow

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The Story

Link here.

From the linked article:

The U.S. labor market showed no signs of letting up in June, as companies created far more jobs than expected, payroll processing firm ADP reported Thursday.

Private sector jobs surged by 497,000 for the month, well ahead of the downwardly revised 267,000 gain in May and much better than the 220,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate. The increase resulted in the biggest monthly rise since July 2022.

From a sector standpoint, leisure and hospitality led with 232,000 new hires, followed by construction with 97,000, and trade, transportation and utilities at 90,000.

Annual pay rose at a 6.4% rate, representing a continued slowing that nonetheless still is indicative of brewing inflationary pressures.

“Consumer-facing service industries had a strong June, aligning to push job creation higher than expected,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “But wage growth continues to ebb in these same industries, and hiring likely is cresting after a late-cycle surge.”