Locator: 45915AUTOS.
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EVs Forecast
These were forecast by the company back in 2022:
- 2023:
- Tesla: 1.1 million EVs
- F: 500,000 EVs -- original estimate
- run rate
- F-150 Lightning: 150,000 annual run rate
- on track to triple production y/y
- sold 3,600 through February, 2023
- list price: $52K to $97K
- Mustang Mach-E: 210,000 annual run rate
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Today's Reports
Ford, June, 2023: link here:
But look at horrendous EV numbers for 2Q23, link here:
Sales of Ford’s F-Series trucks jumped 34% during the second quarter compared with the prior year, including sales of an all-electric version of the F-150 that more than doubled to 4,466 units sold.
However, Ford’s EV sales during the quarter declined 2.8%, to 14,843 vehicles, as supplies of the Mach-E were short amid an overhaul of the factory that makes the EV.
Ford revamped that plant to increase production of the Mach-E during the quarter, part of a larger plan to significantly boost its electric vehicle production and turn a profit on its EV business by the end of 2026.
Ford’s electric vehicle sales remain small for now: EVs represented just 2.8% of the automaker’s total sales during the second quarter, while traditional internal combustion engines represented roughly 91% of sales. Hybrids represented 6.5% of sales.
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My Takeaways Re: Auto Manufacturers
My Takeaways Re: Auto Manufacturers
Comments (pertain to US, only):
- transition from "legacy" ICE to EV is going to be very, very, very expensive;
- we will very likely see change in leadership positions at some legacy auto makers as shareholders become more frustrated;
- there are three major groups of auto manufacturers
- pure play EVs from the very beginning, e.g.: Tesla, Rivian, Lordstown
- legacy auto makers transitioning to EVs, e.g.: Ford, GM, Stellantis
- niche, luxury automakers, doing what they want, e.g.: Rolls-Royce, maybe Porsche in this group
Among the second group, legacy auto makers transitioning to EVs (Ford, GM, Toyota), there are three sub-groups:
- CEO not sold on EVs, yet, e.g.: Toyota
- CEO reluctantly moving forward, e.g.: GM
- CEO going all in, e.g.: Ford
The second group (Ford, GM, Toyota):
- will cover costs to ramp up EVs by inflating prices of ICE vehicles (already occurring)
- GM will lose money hand-over-fist on ramping EVs, we won't know how bad it is; GM won't report
- Ford will also lose money hand-over-fist ramping EVs, but F will break out the details
The second group (Ford, GM, Stellantis):
- will give lip service to affordable EVs
- they can't make money on "Bolt-like" EVs
- they will gravitate to luxury EV brands
- consumers will "see" entry level EVs starting at $50,000 whether or not that's accurate
- tax incentives don't matter to most car buyers
- tax incentives favor the wealthy who would buy/not buy regardless of tax incentives
The second group (Toyota)
- hybrids (e.g., Prius): fake EVs; will be nothing more than a small niche
- will reluctantly move to EVs, mostly to meet California mandates -- otherwise they can't operate in that state
First movers, autos: Tesla
- other than Chinese no-names, Tesla could be "last-man" standing
EV niche:
- medium-haul trucks / urban delivery vans / urban fleet >>> long-haul trucks >>>> luxury sedans / SUVs >>>>> non-luxury SUVs EVs >>> pick-up trucks >>> muscle cars
- best niche for EV trucks and vans
- medium haul
- east coast / west coast ports to neighboring warehouses / fulfillment centers
- urban / last mile delivery
India:
- my enthusiasm for India and four-wheel EVs has waned
US recession / EU recession:
- will further dampen enthusiasm for EVs
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