Huge thanks to a reader. The reader did not say it outright but the comments -- and the lights went on.
On the one hand we have President Biden going to (perhaps literally) Venezuela and Saudi Arabia asking that they increase production to temper crude oil and gasoline prices.
On the other hand, not one overture to US shale to answer the call.
Can this be explained? Yes, it can. But I'll let folks think about it awhile. To be answered later. But if I'm correct, it explains everything and the Biden administration is "consistent" in their thinking / worldview.
This is really quite amazing. I'm embarrassed that I did not think of this earlier, and I'm amazed that the dozen or so analysts -- experts -- that I follow on twitter have not been able to solve this Gordion knot.
March 9, 2022: the Gordion knot solved.
Biden and team are thinking strategically. They are staying the course. Their timeline is ten, twenty, thirty years -- whatever it takes and however long it takes to shut down Big Oil and complete the energy transition all renewable energy. They are determined not to back-step, not to take any steps backward that helps the US fossil fuel industry, even if that means some significant hardship on Americans.
Going to Saudi Arabia and to Venezuela and releasing oil from global SPRs rather than increase US production or support more pipelines is tactical, short term. The Biden team sees this as a one-year, two-year, maybe four-year speed bump before things turn around and we get back on track to a smoother transition to an all-renewable energy future.
So, again, folks are talking pass each other, mostly due to the time frames.
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