Graupel And Fracking Are Not Related -- March 7, 2022

A reader worried about Pelosi, et al, calling for the "nationalization of US oil." 

My not-ready-for-prime-time response:

1. They won't nationalize oil, but they will propose windfall taxes. They can't do this quite yet because they need US shale to start drilling (at least in their minds). US shale doesn't need to drill more; that will take care of itself.

2. What US shale needs to do is start fracking and it's interesting that Pelosi, et al, want US shale to start drilling more but will never utter the word fracking. 

3. But again, folks who want more US drilling are missing the point; we need more completion of wells that have already been drilled. I'll talk about that again, today, for the umpteenth time on the blog. I had the "tease" over the weekend. Never got back to it.

Okay, so here it is. 

Go back to this post, "why US shale is not drilling" -- March 6, 2022, in which I wrote:

I may or may not provide an essay / commentary with regard to my thoughts, but it seems most folks should be able to connect the dots.

The most difficult "dot" to connect / analyze is this week's list of wells coming off the confidential list and the initial production for those wells. 

But my guess is that some folks won't be able to connect the dots. So, if I get the time (and haven't lost interest) I'll post the commentary.

Now, go back and look at the initial production for the wells coming off the confidential list this week.

The number of wells coming off the confidential list has been trending up -- ever so slightly -- over the past several weeks.

But look at this:

• of the 12 wells coming off the confidential list, today (Monday) through next Monday, only two are reporting production; this past year, it has been closer to fifty-percent reporting production when coming off confidential
  
• even CLR, "damn the torpedoes," with six of those twelve wells coming off confidential this next week, CLR is not reporting any of those wells completed, or at least not reporting any production; when CLR quits completing drilled wells that gets me attention -- especially when CLR is unhedged and oil is trending toward $120;
• of the twelve, one is real outlier: Denbury. If it weren't for that outlief, only Hess would be reporting a completed well; 1/12 = 8%.
  
• and, no, CLR is not "not completing" wells because they are "mad" at Biden or because they are afraid of being whacked on the head by the Biden administration again -- the current meme on twitter -- they are not completing wells because of logistics, sand, human resources.

There was an article over the weekend that oil companies are seeing more young men apply for roughneck jobs. But this is something new they are seeing: these new recruits last three weeks on the job. They can't handle "real work." Interesting. It's anecdotal and maybe nothing more than a hand-wringing meme, but whatever it is, I had not seen that in print before.

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Word of the Day

Graupel (/ˈɡraʊpəl/; German: [ˈɡʁaʊpl̩]), also called soft hail, corn snow, hominy snow, or snow pellets, is precipitation that forms when supercooled water droplets are collected and freeze on falling snowflakes, forming 2–5 mm (0.08–0.20 in) balls of crisp, opaque rime.

Technically, what we're getting today here in north Texas is not graupel but it's the best I could find. But this is why the "Eskimos" (are we still allowed to use that word?) have fifty -- exactly fifty -- different words for "snow." 

Graupel is seen at higher altitude during winter storms. I've experienced it, most often during skiing in the Alps back in the day. So, spring weather at lower altitudes, the "anti-graupel"?

But it's not sleet. It appears to be very, very tiny snowflakes falling very, very sporadically. I'm sure it's nothing more than St Peter shaking his head, having not used Head & Shoulders this past week.