Part 3, T+58, Idle Chatter -- January 3, 2019

This is really, really cool. A reader alerted me to the fact that "Peak Oil" highlighted one of my recent posts. See this site. The comments are always the best, of course. They are trying to defend Hubbert. LOL. My favorite comment:

Hubbert got his butt kicked by LTO. Y’all are making excuses. The only things he factored out were tar sands and kerogen (oil shale, not shale oil). And he said he was anticipating new finds and methods. His paper was about all the oil in the “sedimentary basins”.

He was wrong pre war too. When he was a Technocrat in the 30s, he predicte peak at 1950! Just a typical peaker like Colin Campbell or Deffeyes. Getting his butt kicked for making doomer rojections that didn’t work out.

Many Hubbert supporters suggest he was talking about conventional oil, not UTS. Conventional oil vs UTS is not mentioned in the wiki article, at least as far as I read. It begins:

The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.

Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of resource depletion.

The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years.[1][2] The theory is named after American geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume. 

I doubt Hubbert differentiated between conventional and UTS. As far as I know, UTS was pretty much a non-phenomenon when Hubbert was writing. 

Repeating: late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of resource depletion.

Obviously with UTS that is absolutely untrue. MRO has proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt for individual wells, and the Bakken has shown that for a geographical area.