Oasis' Newest Natural Gas Processing Plant On Line -- October 13, 2018

Link at Bismarck Tribune. Discussed many times on the blog.

• Oasis Wild Basin II
• 200 million cf/d
• first major plant to be completed in recent years in the Bakken

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Twin Peaks

Oil Demand / Oil Supply Closing In On New Records

Link here.  Rigzone staff.

Both global oil demand and supply are now close to new, historically significant peaks at 100 mb/d, and neither show signs of ceasing to grow any time soon.

“Fifteen years ago, forecasts of peak supply were all the rage, with production from non-OPEC countries supposed to have started declining by now. In fact, production has surged, led by the US shale revolution, and supported by big increases in Brazil, Canada and elsewhere,” the IEA said in a statement published on its website Friday.

“In future, a lot of potential supply could come to the market from places like Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, if their various challenges can be overcome,” the IEA added.

“There is no peak in sight for demand either. The drivers of demand remain very powerful, with petrochemicals being a major factor,” the IEA continued.

The IEA said it is an “extraordinary achievement” for the global oil industry to meet the needs of a 100 (MMbpd) market but announced that twin peaks for demand and supply have been reached “by straining parts of the system to the limit”.

See STEO report that follows -- sent in my reader.

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From A Reader Regarding EIA's Latest STEO Report

New STEO is out today (October 10, 2018): 

• added 914 data for JUL (10.96 reported, higher than previous estimate of 10.78 from last month STEO) 
• estimates for AUG and SEP revised up from high 10s to low 11s
• 2018 average revised slightly up (from 10.66 to 10.74).

Comment from reader: Note that the peak oilers and shale haters, just a month and a half ago were crowing about how US production was stuck and how EIA was too optimistic (when we had a couple flat months). They were saying we would be lucky to average 10.5 for the year, that it was impossible to hit an average of 10.6-10.7, and that EIA would be forced to revise estimates down soon. Instead we are well on track to hitting 10.7, no problem, and the revisions are going up, not down. 

Comment from reader: Almost a replay of what happened last year with production catching up after a flat period...but the peak oilers never learn...every time we slow for a couple months, they come out of the cracks...

From STEO:

• 2019 average estimate revised up very significantly: from 11.5 to 11.8 MM bopd.

Comments from the reader:

• My personal guess: The EIA is still estimating a little low.
• The oil companies in the Permian will "adapt and overcome" and get those Permian barrels out.
• We will exit 2018 (DEC month) at 11.5 (very doable, less than 0.1 million growth per month for rest of year).
• I think 2019 will be explosive, probably backweighted (as pipes start opening).
• We could exit the year at 13 million bopd (little higher than 0.1 million bopd/month.)
• "We" might just north of 12 million bopd for 2019 (given the big growth is towards second half of the year). 

The STEO here.   

News analysis here. 

With regard to getting those Permian bbls out: there are already reports the pipes are coming on-line faster than originally expected/forecast.

With regard to "peak oilers and shale haters," that would include Art Berman.

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A List Of President Trump's 289 Accomplishments

The big stories.

The Trump years. At 20 months, a list of Trump's 289 accomplishments.

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The End Of Smugness

I hope this article is never lost. Link here. Original article here. I may archive it. It's that good.

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Susan Collins

I haven't linked it yet; easy to find. "Statement" by Susan Collins why she voted to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh will go down as one of the best speeches ever given by any politician in the US.

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Embattled

It is interesting to compare "composure" of past presidents when under duress with the "composure" of President Donald Trump.

He may be the most honest president in US history, some say.

Marc Thiessen: Trump could be the most honest president in modern history. The blogger app won't link this article.

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Don't Get Mad, Get Even

I don't think folks realize how "angry" Chuck Grassley was after torpedoed by Diane Feinstein. He was angry, but he did not get "mad." There's a fine line between "angry" and "mad." But he did not get mad; he got even.

Chuck Grassley, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, wants the upper house to stay in session until all of the 49 currently pending judicial appointments are confirmed.

A tweet from Grassley, R- Iowa, on Thursday came just hours after the committee cleared eight more judicial nominees to the full Senate ,and puts Democrats in a bind over whether to stay in Washington to fight the confirmations or head out on the campaign trail to defend vulnerable seats ahead of the midterms.

Trump wants the three vacancies on the 9th Circuit to be filled by conservatives against the wishes of Kamala Harris and Diane Feinstein. 

The blogger app won't link this article.

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ICE Union Has Had Enough Of This Mayor

Link here. 

The union that represents Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents has asked the Oregon Department of Justice to conduct a criminal investigation into Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler. They want Wheeler, who is the city’s police commissioner, to relinquish his supervisory authority over the Portland Police Bureau.

“We believe that Mr. Wheeler has committed the crime of official misconduct,” stated an Oct. 3 letter sent by Sean Riddell, a Portland-based attorney representing the union. “Our attempts to compel Mr. Wheeler to take reasonable action correct and/or cease his criminal activity have been unsuccessful.”

During an extended protest outside of a south Portland ICE facility over the federal government’s family separation policy along the U.S.-Mexico border, Wheeler said he would not use city police resources to break up the protest.

The letter states that after June 20, when Wheeler declared he didn’t want the Portland Police Bureau “sucked into a conflict” with a federal agency he disagreed with, the crowd around the Portland ICE office grew.

Riddell claims that Wheeler didn’t enforce several city ordinances and state laws, including disorderly conduct, riot, harassment, and prohibited camping on public property and public rights of way.