Friday, January 12, 2018

Arctic Blast? What Arctic Blast! Active Rigs Power Ahead To 56 -- January 12, 2018

Active rigs:


1/12/201801/12/201701/12/201601/12/201501/12/2014
Active Rigs563654156192

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Whiting (3); Lime Rock Resources (2)
  • Fields: Stockyard Creek (Williams County); Manning (Dunn County)
  • Comments: Whiting has permits for a new 3-well Moen pad in lot 1, section 2-154-99; Lime Rock has permits for a 2-well Laura Sadowsky pad in section SESW 1-142-96
Seven permits renewed:
  • Lime Rock Resources III-A (3): a State permit, a Kary permit, and, an Emil Veverka permit, all in Dunn County
  • Petro Harvester: a Miller permit in Burke County
  • BTA Oil Producers: a 20002 Agate permit in Golden Valley County
  • Sinclair: a Crosby Creek permit in Dunn County
  • EOG: another Clarks Creek permit in McKenzie County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 24550, 533, Petro-Hunt, Sabroskky 144-97-6A-7-1H, Little Knife, t12/17; cum --
  • 24696, 1,502, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 1H, Poe, t1/18; cum --
  • 30373, 463, Statoil, Folvag 5-8 8TFH, Stony Creek, t11/17; cum -- (#24180)
  • 30375, 1,229, Statoil, East Fork 32-29 1H, East Fork, t11/17; cum -- (#24180)
  • 32709, 316, Statoil, Heinz 18-19 XW 1H, Alexander, t11/17; cum --

Wow! Who Wudda Guessed? This Story Has Legs -- January 12, 2018

The story was first linked at The Prairie Blog. I then posted a follow-up blog which linked the original post. At the time, I really didn't think the story would have much national exposure. Wow, was I wrong. It just tells me how much political clout the farm states have. Today, this story in The WSJ: USDA, senators vow to change farmer cooperative tax provision.
Added days before the tax bill was signed, the wording gives farmers who sell grain to cooperatives an unintended advantage.
The National Council of Farmer Cooperatives and the National Grain and Feed Association, which has members with both business structures, are working to revise the provision with Sens. John Hoeven (R., N.D.) and John Thune (R., S.D.), who originally backed it.
“A technical change needs to happen and everybody’s working hard to make sure that change can happen as quickly as possible,” he said.
At the original post I suggested that this "problem" could easily be solved, and there they say it's just a matter of making a technical change.

Maybe that's all that's required with regard to the mortgage interest deduction to make the law "fair" between red states and blue states: a technical change. LOL. 

Latest 4Q17 GDP Forecast Jumps -- Now Up To 3.3%; Previous 2.8% -- January 12, 2018

Updates

February 23, 2018: add another reason why the market is surging -- repatriation could make 2018 a $1-trillion buyback year.

February 23, 2018: sixteen reasons why the market is surging (see below); now, eight more reasons.


Original Post

Trump economy: sustained growth pace unlike anything seen in 13 years -- CNBC.
  • the Trump economy may be doing something not seen since 2005 —growth at a 3 percent or better pace for three quarters in a row
  • economists were ratcheting up fourth quarter growth to 3 percent or better after strong fourth quarter retail sales and strong revisions to prior months
Latest forecast: 3.3 percent — January 12, 2018.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on January 12, up from 2.8 percent on January 10.
The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.8 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
US economy, why is the market surging, sixteen reasons:
  • easy money
  • regulatory environment: an about-face
  • Fed remains cautious 
  • lower tax rates, literally overnight -- and lowered significantly -- really significantly
  • great corporate earnings environment
    • JPM surprises
  • Fiat Chrysler: NAFTA is dead
  • many sectors did not participate in rally during 2017
  • consumer confidence at 17-year highs
  • cheap, accessible energy
  • geopolitical risks dialed way back
    • mideast relatively quiet
    • Trump sounds more "optimistic" about North Korea
  • infrastructure discussion beginning
  • WTI flirting with $64 again today
  • one week until partial government shut-down
  • P/E nowhere near euphoric conditions 
  • big companies with huge cash holdings: Buffett with more cash than ever
  • $1,000 - $2,000 / employee across the spectrum; huge amount of money going back into economy (the government did this in 2008: The package will pay $600 to most individual taxpayers and $1,200 to married taxpayers filing joint returns, so long as they are below income caps of $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples. There is also a $300 per child tax credit)


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

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2015 ND Derailment Due To Broken Wheel

Link here.
The National Transportation Safety Board has released its final accident report and safety recommendations nearly three years after a fiery oil tanker train crash in north-central North Dakota that spilled 96,400 gallons of crude oil in the area.
The accident on May 6, 2015, one mile east of the small community of Heimdal, was caused by a broken wheel that led to the derailment of six of the 107 loaded tank cars on the Burlington Northern Santa Fe train, said the board in a release on Thursday, January 11, 2018.
Coming up on three years to sort this out? Life-time employment security for these investigators. My hunch is that the operator of the train knew within 24 hours what happened.

An Old Williston Airport Well Now Flaring Again -- January 12, 2018

From November 22, 2017: #20282. Has been off-line for two years; now IA. Eight seven wells around it have recently been fracked. Name: Williston Airport 2-11 1H; Todd Field.
Update: #20282 is now back on "A" status.

Note the production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2017140017081758058411739
BAKKEN10-201711006379789634155
BAKKEN9-2017300012427000
BAKKEN8-201731000000
BAKKEN7-201731000000
BAKKEN6-201730000000
BAKKEN5-20177000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000

If I remember, I will check on this well monthly for the next few months. 

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My Indoor Garlic Garden


Random Update Of A "New" Well Drilled Back In 2008 -- An MRO Voigt Well -- January 12, 2018

Updates

July 13, 2018: update here.

Original Post

Back on November 22, 2017, these four DUCs were reported as completed:
  • 28462, 1,894, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-96-24C-13-3H, Keene, t10/17; cum --
  • 33326, 1,814, MRO, Spring 21-15TFH, Bailey, t11/17; cum --  (#16964, #20321)
  • 33325, 5,072, MRO, Chapman 31-15H, Bailey, t10/17; cum -- (#16964, #20321)
  • 33324, 2,282, MRO, French 31-15TFH, Bailey, t10/17; cum -- (#16964, #20321) 
I noted that it would be interesting to take a look at two neighboring, older wells: #16964 and #20321.

The neighboring wells:
  • 16964, 315, MRO, Voigt 11-15H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 203K 11/17; re-fracked 8/17; re-frack with 45 stages; 5.5 million lbs;
Recent production (#16964):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20173017493173452132795615057006
BAKKEN10-201722286832872755416075012881
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-2017589641058040
BAKKEN4-2017306616631485410292

Note initial production at time of original frack (#16964):
BAKKEN10-200831255025503789759750
BAKKEN9-20083025112590407116011600
BAKKEN8-20083134263223615158715870
BAKKEN7-20083140134080708165716570
BAKKEN6-20083057145895975179717970
BAKKEN5-200824699065991117000
BAKKEN4-200812903696303000

Comment: we talked about this back in 2008 - 2012 the importance of all these early wells even if they initially appeared "uneconomical."  This was just one of several reasons why these lower-producing wells back in the early days of the boom were (and, are) so important.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20171210018016
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-201722107910979268966554
BAKKEN7-2017311640162013451414818236
BAKKEN6-201730165717391372133190175
BAKKEN5-201731174217071448138595661