Friday, January 12, 2018

Latest 4Q17 GDP Forecast Jumps -- Now Up To 3.3%; Previous 2.8% -- January 12, 2018


February 23, 2018: add another reason why the market is surging -- repatriation could make 2018 a $1-trillion buyback year.

February 23, 2018: sixteen reasons why the market is surging (see below); now, eight more reasons.

Original Post

Trump economy: sustained growth pace unlike anything seen in 13 years -- CNBC.
  • the Trump economy may be doing something not seen since 2005growth at a 3 percent or better pace for three quarters in a row
  • economists were ratcheting up fourth quarter growth to 3 percent or better after strong fourth quarter retail sales and strong revisions to prior months
Latest forecast: 3.3 percentJanuary 12, 2018.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on January 12, up from 2.8 percent on January 10.
The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.8 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
US economy, why is the market surging, sixteen reasons:
  • easy money
  • regulatory environment: an about-face
  • Fed remains cautious 
  • lower tax rates, literally overnight -- and lowered significantly -- really significantly
  • great corporate earnings environment
    • JPM surprises
  • Fiat Chrysler: NAFTA is dead
  • many sectors did not participate in rally during 2017
  • consumer confidence at 17-year highs
  • cheap, accessible energy
  • geopolitical risks dialed way back
    • mideast relatively quiet
    • Trump sounds more "optimistic" about North Korea
  • infrastructure discussion beginning
  • WTI flirting with $64 again today
  • one week until partial government shut-down
  • P/E nowhere near euphoric conditions 
  • big companies with huge cash holdings: Buffett with more cash than ever
  • $1,000 - $2,000 / employee across the spectrum; huge amount of money going back into economy (the government did this in 2008: The package will pay $600 to most individual taxpayers and $1,200 to married taxpayers filing joint returns, so long as they are below income caps of $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples. There is also a $300 per child tax credit)

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2015 ND Derailment Due To Broken Wheel

Link here.
The National Transportation Safety Board has released its final accident report and safety recommendations nearly three years after a fiery oil tanker train crash in north-central North Dakota that spilled 96,400 gallons of crude oil in the area.
The accident on May 6, 2015, one mile east of the small community of Heimdal, was caused by a broken wheel that led to the derailment of six of the 107 loaded tank cars on the Burlington Northern Santa Fe train, said the board in a release on Thursday, January 11, 2018.
Coming up on three years to sort this out? Life-time employment security for these investigators. My hunch is that the operator of the train knew within 24 hours what happened.

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