Monday, January 30, 2017

Coming To America; Making Waffles; Nothing About The Bakken -- January 30, 2017

Updates

February 11, 2017: where the big four stand today:
February 11, 2017: maybe it's the same story, just being published elsewhere. Whatever. But over at AFP, this headline: "Asylum seekers fleeing US for Canada brave snow, extreme cold."

February 6, 2017: this is pretty funny. It turns out my tongue-in-cheek original post was right on target. From Reuters:
Refugees in the United States fearing a worsening climate of xenophobia in the wake of a divisive U.S. presidential campaign are flocking to Canada in growing numbers.
Manitoba's Welcome Place refugee agency helped 91 claimants between November 1, 2016, and January 25, 2017 - more than the agency normally sees in a year. Most braved the freezing prairie winter to walk into Canada.
Original Post
 
Wow, talk about a beautiful day here in north Texas.

My hunch: 108 new refugees on their way to Arlington, TX, now that they have all been cleared to enter the United States, going through passport control like they should have been doing in the first place. I doubt any are going to Canada despite the open-ended invitation from their prime minister, just hours before a terrorist attack on a mosque in Quebec City.

A bit of irony there. And bad timing on the part of Justin Trudeau.

By the way, of the 109 "refugees" delayed at JFK overnight, all but one had been released by this morning. Small inconvenience for the privilege of coming to America. By the way, everyone in America -- except the ones who own the waterways (and even they came across the Bering Strait) -- are all immigrants or descended from immigrants. Most Americans, I assume, support immigration but most Americans, I assume, support legal immigration.

By the way:
Customs and Border Patrol agents process roughly 325,000 visitors to the U.S. each day. In the 24-hour period after order took effect, 109 prospective entrants were detained under the provisions of the executive order, but all were eventually allowed into the U.S. after extra screening (and rulings from federal judges). 


This is the rumor: of the 109 there was only one refugee that was still "detained." Among the 109, he/she was the only one who wanted to go to Canada. The ACLU stepped in to warn that individual that Canada had really, really cold weather -- year round. Even North Dakota was warmer. It took the ACLU several hours to convince the individual that yes, indeed, the red necks in Texas had red necks because of the sun, the same sun that shines on the Mideast (apparently there was some question whether Copernicus or Ptolemy was correct; something the holy books do not address). I do not yet know whether the individual decided to continue on his way to the Northwest Territories or meander down to the home of the Dallas Cowboys. I'm not even sure if there's any truth to the rumor. Perhaps another "alternate fact."

Anyway, as I was saying, it's a beautiful day in north Texas. Around 54 degrees earlier this morning with a high of 75 degrees forecast. I haven't biked to the library in several days due to cool weather, and due to changes in the driving schedule with the three granddaughters.

Speaking of which, yesterday Sophia and I made waffles again. It turns out we need to make waffles every two weeks. Alternate weeks we will make cupcakes. This time we added blueberries to the waffles on the advice of a reader.


When it came to the blueberries, Sophia was responsible for quality control. And, yes, she will get equal pay for equal work. Which in our household is not much. No unions.

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Depression

My dad was very young at the time of the Great Depression in the United States. He often says that he grew up in a time and place where things were so bad before and after the depression, his parents never even knew there was a Great Depression at the time.

I think about that when thinking about President Trump, NAFTA, Canada, and Mexico. There is a very real possibility that Mexico will weather Trump's tectonic changes better than Canada.

This from a message board this morning regarding the prime minister of Canada (remember: this poll was taken before the prime minister invited those "refugees" to come to Canada who are "refused" by the United States; and, before the terrorist attack on a mosque in Quebec City, by Muslim terrorists, it appears). From the message board:
Trudeau's popularity has dropped below 40%. Some of the reasons given for his plunging popularity:
  • Muslim immigration program expensive and not going well
  • approving some pipelines, no digging yet
  • running up the debt
  • giving money to Palestine
  • carbon tax
  • support for the UN
  • nuts about climate change
  • elite attitude
  • the doofus cabinet members 
  • nobody likes his principle secretary Gerald Butts
  • his wife is annoying
  • he is a terrible public speaker
  • he is just not very smart 
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The Literature Page


The Touchstone of Life: 
Molecular Information, Cell Communication, and the Foundations of Life
Werner R. Loewenstein
c. 1999

Loewenstein: showed that biological cell structures called cell junctions (which many scientists thought blocked movements of molecules) actually also functioned as highways permitting the flow of molecules from cell to cell. 

That's what this book is all about: cell-to-cell communications facilitated by molecular "highways" through cell membranes.

The book appears deceptively simple, suggesting that the audience only needs a high school education in biology, but after the first few pages, and then reading the last chapter, which could have been titled, the "philosophy and cell communication" suggests this book requires at least an undergraduate level of understanding of molecular biology.

Werner Loewenstein?
Former Columbia University physiology and biophysics professor Werner Loewenstein tells us what physics and quantum computing have to do with the brain in his new book, Physics in Mind. Home: Falmouth, MA; passed away at the age of 88, in 2014.
This book reminds me the difference in philosophy of education/teaching at Harvard and at the college I attended. At Harvard, one is expected to know the mechanics of the subject; Harvard professors "teach" the 2nd and 3rd derivative of the mechanics. At my college, the professors taught the mechanics, but not the philosophy or the "what it all means." To a great extend, I was spoon-fed from day one, and the professors helped me move through the mechanics of the math and science courses I took. At Harvard, I would have been lost on day one.

That was also true of my graduate training at a university in California. Comparing notes with a student taking the same course of study at Harvard, the difference in how courses were taught was quite remarkable. ]

To Infinity And Beyond -- Part II -- Snowiest January In New Mexico In Past Century -- January 30, 2017

Link here.

Memo to self: send note to the Kennedys.

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Poor Timing

Canadian Prime Minister: tells Canadians that Canada will accept refugees refused by the US.

Twelve hours later: Ontario mosque subject of terrorist attack -- clearly a terrorist attack; six dead.

Yes, send those folks considered a risk to the US up to Canada. Just make sure the US-Canadian border remains secure.

It should be noted that to the best of my knowledge not one "refugee" was detained at NYC; all processed and allowed to enter the US. That is being reported by CNBC. A much bigger glitch was not political: almost 200 Delta flights canceled due to computer glitch. Something like 109 "refugees" went through "passport control" (like they are supposed to) but yet one Delta cancellation would have affected as many as 250 passengers. That was the real reason fro the "chaos" at JFK overnight. At least that's what some are saying. Most likely: "an alternative fact."

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? To Infinity And Beyond -- January 30, 2017

To infinity and beyond, the Trump rally continues (posted elsewhere, also):

US consumer spending rose in December by most in three months -- Bloomberg. Data points:
  • previous month revised upward, up to 0.2 percent
  • 0.5 percent advance in consumption (consumption accounts for about 70 percent of the ecoomy)
  • 0.3 percent increase in income
  • consumers flocked to auto dealerships last month to top off a record year for the industry
  • sales of cars and light trucks jumped to a 18.3 million annualized rate in December, pushing the year's total purchases to a record 17.55 million 
Is it likely that more than 1.5% of the American population even knows that the US set a record of automobile sales in 2016 due to December sales, coming one month after Trump elected president?

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This is from oilprice.com: OPEC may be powerless to stop "lower for longer."
  • consider the source
Disclaimer: this blog is not an investment site.

Data points:
  • links the 2017 BP Energy Outlook  
  • oil resources are abundant and those that are known today dwarf the expected global consumption of oil out to 2050 and beyond
  • low-cost production will pump "ever-increasing amounts of that oil and higher-cost producers will be gradually crowded out"
  • abundance of oil resources contrasts with expectations of slowing growth of oil demand
  • BP: supply-demand analysis suggests that oil prices may not only be lower for longer, but that they may be lower for even longer
In other words, "to infinity and beyond!"


From BP's 2017 Energy Outlook:


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OPEC Not Cheating ... Yet
or
Fast and Furious?

OPEC convinces investors that its oil output cuts are real -- Bloomberg. Data points:
  • money managers' WTI net-long positions rise to record -- CFTC
  • OPEC supply to fall by 900,000 bopd this month, the first month of cuts -- Petro-Logistics
  • Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria: said they have cut more than required
  • Russia: curbing production faster than was agreed
  • one headwind: increased US shale production
  • US production in 2017: will increase by 1 million bopd
  • US crude production: climbed to 8.96 million bopd as of January 20, 2017
  • US crude production closing in on EIA's latest 2017 output forecast of 9 million bopd that as issued January 10, 2017
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Trump Enthusiasm Continues

US consumer spending rose in December by most in three months -- Bloomberg. Data points:
  • previous month revised upward, up to 0.2 percent
  • 0.5 percent advance in consumption (consumption accounts for about 70 percent of the ecoomy)
  • 0.3 percent increase in income
  • consumers flocked to auto dealerships last month to top off a record year for the industry
  • sales of cars and light trucks jumped to a 18.3 million annualized rate in December, pushing the year's total purchases to a record 17.55 million 

Update On The SPR -- RBN Energy -- January 30, 2017

Trump presidency: Kardashian-on-Steroids.  Daily meeting in the White House -- networks shift to that "reality show." Generally makes a huge announcement. Today, Trump announces that he will name his Supreme Court nominee on television, prime time, tomorrow evening, 8:00 p.m. ET. Will follow up morning reality show with next reality show: signing one to three executive orders. Today's executive order(s) has/have to do with business regulations: regulatory freeze; each new regulation requires removal of two existing regulations; cost analysis must be done -- new regulation cost must match cost of two existing regulations. 

Trump rally: US consumer spending rose in December by most in three months -- Bloomberg

SPR: three days ago, I asked "tell me again why we're selling oil from the SPR?" Today, RBN Energy discusses the SPR. 

WTI: $53.22.

Futures: again, the "market" keeps things in perspective.

Travel chaos: less than 24 hours later, no protesters at NYC airport; only one individual still being processed. By tomorrow, we will have moved on. Heartland praised move. Border agents apparently supportive. Michael Moore turns out to major organizer of "spontaneous" protests.

Fitbit: to cut 10% of workforce; will miss guidance by large margin; shares down significantly in pre-market trading. AAPL earnings come out tomorrow. If I recall correctly, Fitbit had a bad quarter three months ago, also. Did I mention that AAPL earnings were coming out tomorrow. Link over at CNBC.

New "leader of the pack": VW, #1; Toyota, #2. Link at AP.

Leader of the Pack, The Shangri-Las

Mike is back! Filloon discusses Noble's acquisition in the Permian. Lukewarm.

Oilprice on the OPEC cut: OPEC does not have to worry about "managing lower oil prices longer; OPEC has to worry about managing lower oil price much longer." Link here.

Bloomberg on the OPEC cut: OPEC "keeping their word." Fly in the ointment: the Bakken.

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And Speaking Of The Bakken

Active rigs:


1/30/201701/30/201601/30/201501/30/201401/30/2013
Active Rigs3845146190186

RBN Energy: update on the SPR. I just blogged about the SPR a few days ago; now RBN Energy provides an update, part 1.
The SPR’s ability to mitigate the effect of a severe supply interruption on refineries and on crude (and petroleum-product) prices has been compromised since the beginning of the Shale Era, though.
The problem is this: Because of four major changes since 2011­­—a) how much oil is produced in the Lower 48, b) where that oil is produced, c) how it is transported to refineries, and d) where U.S. refineries source their oil from—full-bore withdrawal in today’s energy world is unlikely to  have nearly the impact (for refineries and for prices) that it would have 15 or 30 years ago. Why’s that? Because while there’s technically sufficient capacity on pipelines connected to the four SPR storage facilities to receive all the crude being pumped out (even at the 4.415-MMb/d maximum drawdown rate), new patterns of oil supply and demand among U.S. oil producers and refineries (among other things) now constrain the SPR’s ability to distribute incremental volumes of oil into the market during a major supply interruption.
In other words, because of increased utilization of pipelines and marine terminals along the Gulf Coast in recent years—and a few pipeline reversals—it has become more difficult to move large volumes of SPR-stockpiled crude without disrupting the existing flow of domestic production and Canadian imports.
In other words:
  • it looks like the Obama administration did not coordinate with oil industry on how to do things better
  • it looks like the government could gum up the works -- I'm shocked, I'm shocked

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Anticipating A Tough Day For The Market On Monday Following Last 72 Hours -- January 29, 2017

Updates

January 30, 2017: market (Dow 30) down almost 200 points; the S&P moves down a full percent.
 
Original Post
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

I don't think the "market" is going to like the way the Trump administration handled the immigration problem: futures for Monday morning are now down 80 points. The "market" was looking for a reason to take profits.

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A Note For The Granddaughters

"The Planet That Wasn't There," Thomas Jones, London Review of Books, essay re: The Hunt for Vulcan: How Albert Einstein Destroyed a Planet and Deciphered the Universe, Thomas Levenson.

Link here

Two pages long, this article seems to be divided into four parts:
  • the current search for another planet in our solar system;
  • how Neptune was discovered;
  • the search for a planet situated between Mercury and the sun (apparently does not exist); and,
  • how Einstein explained Mercury's erratic behavior.
I'm posting the note because I'm interested in the first "part": the current search for another planet in our solar system:
  • primary researchers: California Institute of California, Konstantin Batygin and Michael Brown 
  • five dwarf planets
  • Pluto (August, 2006, went from a planet to a non-planet to a dwarf planet)
  • Eris 
  • Haumea
  • Makemake 
  • Ceres: the largest body in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter; the other four are beyond Neptune 
  • the search is being done primarily using the Subaru telescope on Hawaii
  • the search is expected to take six years
  • the "planet" is going by the name, "Planet X"
  • "Planet X" is suspected because of the highly elliptical orbit of Sedna
  • Sedna: a "short-period" comet that originated from the Kuiper belt (disc) beyond Neptune
This is the kind of stuff that would have fascinated me in high school. It still does, but perhaps not as much.